#CPIDataIncoming Today's inflation report is more than just numbers for the Federal Reserve 💸

📊📈📉Today at 15:30 Moscow time, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September will be released. This is not only the main benchmark for the Federal Reserve but also a key indicator for the wallets of ordinary Americans.

What the markets (based on CNBC and CBS) are expecting:

· Core CPI (excluding food and energy): Forecast — an increase of 0.3% for the month.
· The main indicator for the Federal Reserve: The dynamics of the “supercore” (services excluding housing). This will show whether inflation is stuck at a high level.
· Social context: As CBS notes, these data directly influence the final size of the COLA (cost-of-living adjustment) for 70+ million Social Security recipients in 2025. High inflation = significant increase in social benefits.

Scenarios for the crypto market:

1. “Perfect storm” for CPI growth (< 0.3%): The Fed will get the green light for earlier policy easing. At the same time, a confident COLA increase will support consumer spending and potentially free up some funds for investments, including crypto. A strong bullish signal.
2. “Prolonged pause” (> 0.4%): High “supercore” will force the Fed to keep rates at the peak longer. This will maintain pressure on risk assets. Although social benefit recipients will receive a larger COLA, these funds will primarily go toward current expenses due to the high cost of living. For crypto — a sideways or correction scenario.
3. “Status quo” (= 0.3%): The most likely outcome. The Federal Reserve will remain in a wait-and-see mode. The COLA adjustment will stay significant (forecast ~2.7%), creating a long-term environment to support consumer liquidity, some of which may eventually flow into the crypto market.

In summary: Today’s CPI is a puzzle consisting of two parts: 1)Federal Reserve policy (affects the cost of money) and 2)Real household income (affects liquidity). Together, they determine how favorable the environment for cryptocurrencies will be in the coming quarters.

Do you think that an increase in social benefits could become a new driver for the cryptocurrency market? Share your opinion!