#ETH

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In just 18 days since October 2025, the crypto world has witnessed an epic fluctuation resembling a "tale of ice and fire." As October began, the ongoing turmoil over the U.S. federal government shutdown escalated, with several key economic data releases facing difficulties. Bitcoin once surged to $126,200, setting a historic high, only to enter a prolonged correction afterward. October 11 became a critical turning point: former President Trump once again wielded the tariff stick, leading to a severe decoupling of the stablecoin USDE, and the U.S. stock market and cryptocurrency market crashed simultaneously. The contract market faced a bloodbath, with over 1.6 million investors liquidated and nearly $20 billion in funds "wiped out with a single click." However, the turmoil did not end there. In less than a week, several small U.S. banks experienced "explosions," raising concerns about a subprime crisis, causing another waterfall decline in the crypto market, with the contract market suffering double damage, leading to over 400,000 liquidations and losses amounting to $1.568 billion. A turning point occurred yesterday when Trump reversed his stance, "denying that he would maintain high tariffs on China," prompting a rebound in U.S. stocks and a recovery in the cryptocurrency market early in the morning. The intense fluctuations over these 18 days reaffirmed that the essence of the crypto market is still a "news market," where short-term trends are often influenced by sudden information and policy uncertainties, leading to rapid shifts between bullish and bearish movements. Keep an eye on Yibo for the latest updates, while also tracking the Federal Reserve's subsequent actions, avoiding blind chasing of high crypto assets, and managing positions for effective risk hedging to seize opportunities and reduce risks.

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Bitcoin experienced a round of severe volatility during yesterday's trading session. In the early trading hours, the selling pressure was concentrated, and the price significantly dipped to around 103,428 USD. This level served as a key support area, successfully holding without showing any effective breakdown. Subsequently, market sentiment gradually warmed up, and in the evening session, the price began to rebound, temporarily rising to 106,500 USD. However, constrained by insufficient buying power, after a brief rebound, the price slightly retreated again, with the low dropping to 104,420 USD. It is worth noting that this pullback did not trigger a new wave of selling; rather, after forming a secondary support at the lower level, it rebounded again, testing a high near 107,400 USD, setting a new intraday rebound high. As of now, the Bitcoin price remains stable above 106,000 USD, and the oscillating consolidation trend is becoming increasingly clear. From a technical structure perspective, yesterday's significant decline did not damage the core support system, and the selling pressure has shown clear signs of weakening after continuous release. Considering the usual weak consolidation pattern of the weekend market, Bitcoin is likely in a power accumulation and correction phase, and in the short term, it may fluctuate repeatedly within the range of 104,000-108,000 USD, building energy for the subsequent direction of the market.

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Ethereum's performance yesterday almost mirrored the volatility of the broader market. Driven by a significant drop in Bitcoin, Ethereum dipped to a low of $3670 during the day, resonating with the previously formed support level, and then began a synchronized rebound. In the evening session, Ethereum followed the market rebound to around $3820, faced with short-term resistance before slightly retreating, touching a low of $3714, and after confirming the support's validity, it surged again, testing a maximum near $3880 as of now. However, the $3880-$3900 range is a key area that has seen multiple contests in the past, showing significant resistance. The current price has fallen back to oscillate above $3800. From the perspective of correlation, the height and strength of Ethereum's rebound have been consistently constrained by Bitcoin's rhythm of movement, and it has yet to form an independent upward driving logic. In the short term, it is crucial to focus on the effectiveness of the support below $3800 and the breakthrough situation of the resistance in the $3880-$3900 range. The stabilization or not of these two key positions will directly determine Ethereum's short-term volatility direction.

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Overall, the current market is in a consolidation phase after the bearish momentum has weakened. The weekend's fluctuations serve both to repair the previous large volatility and to prepare for the direction of future market movements. Investors need to remain patient and focus on certain opportunities within the range, and adjust their operating strategies accordingly after clear breakout signals appear at key positions.