Still as steady as an old dog, this afternoon it will break through support! Tariff war +120,000 BTC dumping, is the bull run really about to cool down?

1. 120,000 BTC Confiscated: Not a Technical Breach, but a Panic Among Black Money Holders

Let’s first break down the case that everyone is most concerned about— the 127,271 Bitcoins (worth $15 billion) seized by the U.S. Department of Justice last week, which are not as mysterious as the rumored decryption of private keys. The 256-bit encryption algorithm of Bitcoin has not been broken to this day. The U.S. government obtained these coins through legal maneuvers: first, by prosecuting Chen Zhi for telecom fraud and human trafficking, then using civil forfeiture lawsuits to lock down the assets, and finally, by negotiating a plea agreement that compelled his key deputy to voluntarily hand over the private keys.

But the market doesn't care about these details; panic has exploded. This batch of BTC is the proceeds from a pig-butchering scam. Chen Zhi's gang used mixed coin services to transfer funds, which is exactly the same as many current money laundering paths for pyramid schemes and gambling. This afternoon, on-chain data showed that the net inflow of BTC to the exchange suddenly surged by 43,000 coins, more than six times the usual amount—those holders hiding dirty money are scared, fearing that their fund trails will be tracked, and either they are frantically selling to cash out or urgently transferring coins to anonymous wallets, directly igniting the first wave of selling pressure.

Even worse, these 120,000 BTC account for 0.6% of the global circulation, close to Block.one's holdings. The market suddenly realized that regulation could so easily take away the 'big chips' lying on the road. By 4 PM, the liquidation amount of perpetual contracts surged to 3.2 billion USD, double that of the entire day yesterday, causing many leveraged long positions to be forced to liquidate and collapse the market.

II. Tariff War Counterattack: Trump's Soft Words Hide a More Ruthless Strategy

If the seizure of 120,000 BTC is internal panic, then Trump's tariff threats are external blows. The Senate has just authorized him to impose a 500% tariff on China, citing the purchase of Russian energy as a disguised support for the war, and Senator Besant also mentioned that China accounts for 60% of Russia's energy exports and Iran 90%.

Don't be fooled by Trump's remark about helping China; this trick was used back in early 2025—at that time, he softened his tone while imposing a 10% tariff, which directly crashed Bitcoin from $109,000 to $78,000. Now it's even harsher; once a 500% tariff is implemented, the global supply chain chaos will directly collapse risk assets, and the correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 has already risen to 0.7, making it impossible to avoid.

The worse signal is the timing point—this wave of sell-off coincided exactly with the aftermath of the 20 billion liquidation on October 10. The market hasn't recovered from the high-leverage liquidations, and is now being attacked by the dual negative impacts of tariffs and regulations, like a freshly stitched wound being torn open again, leading to a natural surge in sell orders.

3. Is the bull market really over? Just look at two key positions.

Core focuses on the defense battle of two support levels:

1. The first line of defense for Bitcoin is at $106,500, which is the 0.618 position of the Fibonacci retracement and also a key support level for the 50-day moving average. Today, it dipped to a low of $107,800 and then rebounded, indicating that there is buying support here. If it holds, there is a high probability that it can retrace to $110,000 next week; however, if it breaks down, the next strong support is at $102,000, where there is a dense area of institutional holdings (BlackRock still holds 500,000 BTC without any movement).

2. Ethereum needs to keep an eye on $3830, which is the lifeline of the MA120-day moving average. The position at $3890 is very delicate; if it can stabilize tonight, it may form a bowl-shaped bottom reversal. If it breaks down, it could test $3750, but further significant decline is limited—after all, the staking volume of 30 million ETH is there, and institutions won't let the staked assets shrink significantly.

There is another key signal: during the afternoon sell-off, the BTC holdings of Grayscale and BlackRock remained unchanged, while a large holder placed a buy order for 2,000 coins at $108,000. This indicates that institutions are seizing the opportunity to accumulate chips, which is completely different from the bearish signal when institutions collectively fled during the FTX collapse in 2022.

4. Should we cut losses now or buy the dip? Practical advice for three types of people

1. Empty/Light positions: Don't rush to go all in

First, wait for the panic brake signal - either Bitcoin shows a long lower shadow at $106,500, or the net inflow to the exchange returns to the daily average level (currently still three times the peak). The first time you bottom fish, do not exceed 20% of your position, prioritize adding Bitcoin, and then act once Ethereum and others stabilize above $3,980.

2. Those stuck above 110,000 USD: Don't hold on stubbornly and don't sell at the bottom

For those with a heavy position (over 50%), reduce it to 30%, and add back when it drops to $106,500, to make a swing trade and lower costs; for those with a light position (below 20%), just lie flat. Cutting losses at this position is simply giving away money; it’s better to wait for a rebound to $112,000 before making adjustments.

3. Those who have dirty money: hurry up and get rid of it, don't take chances

The Chen Zhi case has already sounded the alarm. The US FinCEN can shut down money laundering channels like the Huiwang Group, and those still using mixing services should stop immediately. Either convert to compliant assets or cash out directly, don't wait for regulators to come knocking.

Today's drop is fundamentally a resonance of black money panic + tariff bearishness + leverage liquidation, much like the tariff crash in early 2025, but the core logic of the bull market—institutional holding, halving expectations, regulatory progress—has not been broken.

Remember, every bull market in Bitcoin's history has experienced a correction of more than 30%. After the halving in 2024, it dropped from 80,000 to 58,000, but didn't it eventually rise to 120,000? What you should do now is not to guess the top and bottom, but to calculate your stop-loss line and leave enough bullets.