The encryption market has shown a continuous downward trend throughout the day, and despite a significant surge in open interest, prices have followed a unilateral downward curve. This divergence between volume and price not only exacerbates the cautious sentiment in the market but also lays a crucial foundation for subsequent market movements. Especially in an environment where liquidity continues to tighten, the intensity of the Bull vs Bear Battle in the market has further escalated. It's essential to pay close attention to the reactions at key support levels to formulate more targeted layout strategies. Currently, the encryption market is in a complex phase characterized by "volume-price divergence + insufficient liquidity + key support level testing," where blindly buying the dip or chasing short positions poses a high risk. The core logic for subsequent operations should revolve around "reaction at key positions": on one hand, closely track the changes in trading volume at the key support levels of Bitcoin and Ethereum. If the combination of "price stabilization + increased trading volume" occurs, consider gradually initiating long positions; on the other hand, if key support levels are effectively broken, risk should be avoided promptly, and one should wait for a new support range to form.

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From the performance of Bitcoin, after hitting the previous low point last Friday, the anticipated rebound did not occur, and instead, the weakness continued today. The current issue of insufficient market liquidity is particularly prominent, which means that prices can easily exhibit a "breakout" trend in the absence of capital support. Combining historical trend patterns, when open interest increases while prices fall, it often reflects that bearish forces are still being released, and the market's recognition of the current price level is relatively low. Therefore, for Bitcoin, it cannot be ruled out that there may be another test of the previous lows in the short term or even explore new support zones downward. This trend is not entirely a negative signal; rather, it provides long-term investors with opportunities for "second layout" or "buy the dip," but the prerequisite is to wait for clear signals of a stop-loss to avoid blindly entering the market before the trend is clarified.

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The movement of Ethereum today is highly correlated with Bitcoin, which also followed Bitcoin down to a key support level today. From a technical perspective, the current support range for Ethereum is not only an important threshold that has been tested multiple times previously but also a "watershed" in the short-term Bull vs Bear Battle. If this support level can be effectively held and accompanied by a moderate increase in Trading Volume, it may indicate the formation of a temporary bottom; conversely, if the support level is effectively broken, it could trigger a new round of panic selling, further expanding the fall. It is important to note that while the correlation between Ethereum and Bitcoin is strong, their responses at key points may differ, and investors should track the effectiveness of the support levels for both separately to avoid missing trading opportunities due to "one-size-fits-all" judgments.

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The subsequent market trend needs to focus on the performance of the US stock market in the evening session today. The rise and fall of the US stock market often transmits through risk appetite to the encryption market. If the US stock market shows a rebound later, it may drive the risk appetite of the encryption market to recover, providing support for the stabilization of key support levels; if the US stock market continues to adjust, it may further suppress the rebound space of the encryption market, exacerbating the downward pressure on prices. Therefore, investors should not only track the technical aspects of the encryption market but also incorporate the trends of the US stock market into their analytical framework, enhancing the accuracy of their positioning through multidimensional judgments. #ETH创历史新高