The Philippines plans to hoard 10,000 BTC for a 20-year lock-up position: Is Asia's first sovereign Bitcoin reserve coming? Opportunities and risks are hidden.

The cryptocurrency industry welcomes a significant move from the "national team"! The Philippine Congress has submitted the "Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Bill" (House Bill No. 421), which plans for the central bank to purchase 10,000 BTC within five years, locking them up for 20 years without the option to sell. After the term, the BTC can only be used to pay off government debt. If the bill passes, the Philippines will become one of the first countries in Asia to establish a "sovereign Bitcoin reserve" through legislation. This is not retail speculation, but rather a national-level bet on the value of BTC as "digital gold". However, there are voices questioning the "feasibility of the proposal"; how should we rationally view this?

1. Three core details of the proposal: clear operations, strict lock-up position, and high transparency.

1. Clear purchasing plan: The central bank needs to accumulate 10,000 BTC within 5 years, with a maximum of 2,000 coins per year. Based on the current price of $100,000 per coin, an average annual investment of $200 million is required, totaling $2 billion over 5 years, and it must be purchased from the market with real money, unlike the method used by the US and Germany of counting through "law enforcement seizures".
2. The lock-up position rules are strict: after purchase, it must be locked up for 20 years, during which selling and pledging are prohibited. The only use is to sell after 20 years to repay government debt, which is equivalent to using BTC as a "national long-term savings jar."
3. Management requirements transparency: BTC must be deposited into the central bank trust account, and the holding addresses and purchase records must be publicly disclosed regularly, allowing the public to audit through blockchain explorers, with transparency far exceeding that of traditional foreign exchange reserves.

II. The Logic Behind the Proposal: Diversifying Dependence on the Dollar and Positioning in Digital Assets

In the Philippines, the US dollar accounts for over 60% of the current foreign exchange reserves, facing the risk of national wealth shrinking due to the depreciation of the dollar. BTC possesses "anti-inflation and decentralization" attributes, which can help diversify risks. This strategy is not an isolated case; Bhutan has already accumulated BTC and Ethereum through hydropower mining, and Pakistan is also advancing its sovereign reserve plan. Many countries in Asia are quietly increasing their investment in digital assets.

Three major viewpoints in the circle: positive, questioning, and rational analysis.

- Positive View: Low-cost bet on future asymmetrical benefits
Miguel Antonio Cuneta, co-founder of Satoshi Citadel Industries, the first licensed virtual asset company in the Philippines, believes that the Philippines has an average annual foreign exchange reserve of about 100 billion USD. Using 200 million USD (only 0.2%) to buy BTC would not affect key expenditures such as education and healthcare. If in 20 years BTC rises to 500,000 USD per coin, 10,000 coins could be liquidated for 5 billion USD, which could repay nearly 10% of the Philippines' government debt (currently about 54 billion USD), offering a very high cost-performance ratio.
- Cautious faction: Proposals are hard to pass, the signal significance is greater than the actual.
Luis Buenaventura, the crypto chief of the Philippines' largest e-wallet GCash, pointed out that the Philippine central bank has been consistently conservative regarding cryptocurrencies, and that "using taxpayer money to buy BTC" is likely to cause controversy, making it difficult for the bill to pass. However, the proposal sends a key signal: local businesses may follow in the footsteps of MicroStrategy by including BTC in their balance sheets and utilizing idle funds for digital asset reserves.
- Rationalists: Opportunities and risks coexist, execution is key.
Paul Soliman, CEO of the blockchain company BayaniChain, stated that using BTC as a long-term reserve and publicly auditing it as "digital gold" can win people's trust through high transparency, which is a bold attempt. However, the risks are also prominent: first, BTC is highly volatile, and if purchased at a high price, it is likely to face criticism of "wasting funds" in the short term; second, the public's understanding of cryptocurrencies is insufficient, and they may oppose investing funds in digital assets rather than in people's livelihoods; third, purchasing strategies are crucial, and "dollar-cost averaging" is preferable to "buying high."

A model worth referencing is that of Bhutan: it mines BTC through hydropower, which reduces purchase costs and avoids the controversy of "buying with foreign exchange". Currently, it has reserved over a hundred BTC, which may serve as a reference for the Philippines.

Four, Two Major Signals and Three Practical Suggestions for Ordinary Investors

(1) Two key signals to watch closely

1. The trend of sovereign nations布局BTC is accelerating: from El Salvador making BTC legal tender, to Bhutan and Pakistan promoting reserve plans, and then to the Philippines proposing legislation, "national team funds" are continuously entering the market. Although an annual average of 2,000 coins has limited short-term impact on the market, it will reduce the circulation of BTC in the long term, providing support for prices, similar to the sustained effect of MicroStrategy holding over 190,000 coins for 4 years.
2. Proposal progress is an emotional catalyst: If it enters the legislative process within six months (such as discussions in Congress at the end of September and a revised version before December), it will strengthen the signal of "BTC gaining national recognition" and may trigger follow-up buying; if it is rejected, there may be a slight short-term pullback, but it is unlikely to change the long-term trend.

(2) Practical Advice: Reject FOMO, Focus on the Long Term

1. Don't chase the highs, learn dollar-cost averaging: Currently at $100,000/coin, close to recent highs, you can follow the Philippines' "5-year dollar-cost averaging" strategy, buying 5%-10% of your salary each month to average out costs.
2. Prioritize mainstream coins: Besides BTC, you can pay attention to Ethereum, which Bhutan also reserves, but stay away from small altcoins; aligning with the "national team" configuration direction is more prudent.
3. Long-term holding, stay away from short-term: The Philippines' 20-year Lock-up Position highlights the long-term value of BTC, and investors should also abandon the "quick money" mentality, as holding for 1-3 years makes it easier to enjoy the dividends of "national team funds entering the market."

Regardless of whether the bill ultimately passes, a clear trend has emerged: BTC is transitioning from being an "individual investor asset" to an "institutional and state-recognized asset." Short-term fluctuations are inevitable, but the continuous entry of the "national team" will further solidify BTC's market foundation, making it far more reliable to follow the trend than to engage in blind speculation. #Gate Alpha空投FST