#August Market Prediction

The DVOL indicator for Bitcoin, which tracks volatility, is at historically low levels. Only 2.6% of days have seen lower values, indicating a significant sense of comfort in the market. Investors are not taking protective measures against potential downturns. This could lead to large price movements if unexpected events cause volatility.
DVOL measures the expected price volatility over the next month. Current low levels indicate trader complacency. However, this calm may not last long, as volatility shocks are often followed by periods of excessive confidence. If an unexpected event occurs in the market, Bitcoin could experience sharp price fluctuations, potentially surprising investors.
The total momentum of Bitcoin shows noticeable changes in investor behavior. The metric for the net position change of coin holders has slowed down, indicating a decrease in activity among long-term coin holders (LTH). Although they started accumulating Bitcoin at the beginning of the month, this trend has halted due to market uncertainty.
Despite the lack of new purchases, the absence of sales indicates optimism among coin holders. They are waiting for a clearer direction in the market before taking the next step. This shows that long-term coin holders are cautious, but they expect that any increase in volatility could lead to a rise in prices, so they are holding their positions.
The price of Bitcoin has risen over the month, but during the past 24 hours, momentum has declined, and BTC has dropped to $117,305. This decrease came after the price fell below the upward trend line, indicating a change in market sentiment.
If investors hold their positions during the expected volatility, Bitcoin may stabilize above $117,000. This would pave the way for a potential move toward $120,000. Converting this point to support would allow prices to continue rising. If investors begin to sell in response to the volatility, the cryptocurrency could drop significantly. A breach of the support level at $115,000 would open the way to $112,526. This would negate the August rise and cancel the bullish outlook.