After the conflict between Israel and Palestine calmed down, the Nasdaq and S&P have recently rebounded strongly. If the PCE data is favorable, the Nasdaq and S&P may reach new historical highs tonight. This situation is somewhat similar to last year when Yoon Suk-yeol's imposition of martial law and incitement of chaos in South Korea led to a market risk-off fall, followed by a strong rebound with BTC breaking the psychological barrier of 100,000 for the first time. Everyone in the crypto world is definitely more concerned about whether BTC will follow the U.S. stock market to reach new highs or if it has already risen ahead and will follow the fall instead of rising.

Let's summarize the various factors to clarify the possible directions for the future.
Recent reasons for the market rise:
1. The ceasefire between Israel and Palestine has temporarily eased geopolitical risks, reducing the risks to oil supply and inflation expectations.
2. Trump's attendance at the NATO summit not only boosted his popularity but also led NATO to increase military spending, effectively reducing the costs for the United States and alleviating financial pressure.
3. By leveraging the Israel-Palestine conflict, it first temporarily shed the burden of Ukraine's Zelensky, and then, through the ceasefire between Israel and Palestine, it briefly got rid of the burden associated with Israel, continuing to reduce the costs for the United States.
4. The interest rate cut expectations brought by the shadow Fed chairman have led the eager committee members to express their support recently. Whether the rate cut happens in July or September, the market has, to some extent, already priced in the expectation of a rate cut.
5. The continuous benefits brought by stablecoin legislation lower U.S. Treasury yields and inject liquidity into the U.S. stock market.

Reasons for future fall:
1. The conflict between Israel and Palestine is only a temporary ceasefire due to both sides being exhausted; once they have had the chance to rest and replenish their supplies of food and ammunition, the conflict could erupt again at any time.
2. The Beautiful Act has not yet been passed, and the two parties will continue to argue over details such as the debt ceiling. The negative effects that may arise during this period could be exploited by capital, resulting in volatility.
3. Although the US stock market is currently rising, the momentum of the rise is ultimately singular among institutions. One could even argue that the current price is the limit after potential mining under the current framework. The fragile rise could fall again at any time due to a technical overextension.
4. Trump suddenly adopts a tough stance in the future to wash away the shame of TACO, such as not renewing the tariff exemption period, killing two birds with one stone, demonstrating his toughness while seizing the opportunity to achieve his own goals. A few days ago, the B2 bombing incident has already shown that Trump intends to use the market's TACO expectations for counter-expectation operations.
5. The fundamentals of the U.S. economy are not as good as they appear, everyone knows about expectation management, and downward revisions of data have become the norm. The risks of "black swans" and "gray rhinos" have not disappeared.

The market is likely still in a consolidation phase recently, where it will neither rise nor fall significantly, basically going up when it has risen too much and going down when it has fallen too much. External macro factors are merely triggers, especially after the Israel-Palestine conflict has temporarily downgraded from the main narrative to market noise, the crypto world is more oscillating according to its internal logic. This period is also referred to by many as the golden time for contract traders, with a large number of contract experts emerging who have become wealthy. From this perspective, we can actually judge the current bull-bear form by seeing who is making money in the market at any given time, after all, no matter how many stories can be told, the results won't lie.

BTC follows with a new high