According to the latest market analysis on April 22, 2025, the current price of Ethereum (ETH) is approximately $1580. The technical outlook and market sentiment show a short-term bearish trend, but there is potential support in the long-term fundamentals. Here are the market strategy recommendations based on a comprehensive analysis of multiple dimensions:

1. Technical Analysis
1. The short-term trend is bearish.
Daily indicators: The EMA moving averages are in a bearish arrangement, the MACD continues to expand below the zero line, the KDJ death cross is valid, the Bollinger Bands are running downwards, and the price is hindered by the middle band at the resistance level of 1630 USD. Short-term support is focused on 1560 USD, and if it breaks below, it may drop to 1430 USD.
4-hour chart: After failing to break through the EMA120 resistance at $1660, it has retraced. The MACD bearish momentum has not fully released, and the lower Bollinger Band support near $1560 may be further tested.
2. Key Levels and Operational Signals
Resistance level**: $1641 (4-hour level), $1700 (daily strong resistance).
Support level: $1560 (short-term key support), $1430-$1380 (medium-term support range).
Signal judgment: If the price rebounds to the range of 1650-1700 USD, it can be seen as an opportunity to enter a short position; if it falls below 1560 USD, it may trigger an accelerated decline.
2. Market Sentiment and Capital Flow
1. Short-term bearish factors
Technical Resistance: Ethereum has recently performed weaker than Bitcoin, showing a "following the decline but not the rise" characteristic, with market funds flowing more towards Bitcoin and competing public chains like Solana.
On-chain revenue decline: After the Dencun upgrade, Ethereum mainnet transaction fee revenue plummeted by 95%, and the contribution from L2 chains is limited, weakening the network's value capture capability.
Short-selling ETFs perform strongly: The 2x leveraged short-selling ETFs for Ether (such as ETHD, ETQ) have increased by over 200% this year, reflecting the market's short-term pessimism towards ETH.
2. Long-term potential benefits
ETF fund inflow: By 2025, the cumulative inflow of Ethereum spot ETFs exceeded $1.75 billion, and the increase in institutional holdings may provide support for long-term prices.
Pectra Upgrade Expectations: The Pectra upgrade planned for implementation in 2025 will optimize interaction costs and attract institutional staking, potentially improving network efficiency and demand.
Three, Operation Strategy Recommendations
Short-term trading (1-3 days)
1. Short Position Strategy
Entry range: $1640-1700 (lightly position short orders when rebounding to resistance area).
Stop-loss setting: above $1700-1750 (to guard against false breakout risks).
Target level: $1560 (first support), $1430 (mid-term target).
2. Long Position Strategy (Cautious)
Entry conditions: If the price stabilizes around $1560 and shows signs of a stop in the decline (such as a long lower shadow or divergence in volume and price), a small long position can be attempted.
Stop-loss setting: below $1530 (if it breaks, exit and observe).
Target range: $1650-1700 (rebound resistance zone).
Medium to long-term layout (more than 1 month)
DCA on dips: If the price falls to the range of 1400-1500 USD, you can gradually build a position, betting on the long-term benefits of the Pectra upgrade and ETF capital inflow.
Risk warning: Attention should be paid to the ecological expansion of competing public chains like Solana squeezing Ethereum's market share, as well as the impact of regulatory policies on staking ETFs.
4. Key Points of Risk Management
1. Strict stop-loss: Short-term fluctuations may be amplified due to insufficient liquidity (such as during the Good Friday holiday), and it is recommended to control the stop-loss on a single trade within 3%-5%.
2. Position Control: Short-term positions should not exceed 10%-20% of total funds to avoid heavily betting on one-sided market movements.
3. Pay attention to macro events: The policy direction of Trump, the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, and the progress of ETF regulations may trigger significant market volatility.
Ethereum's technical outlook is bearish in the short term, and it is recommended to focus on shorting during rebounds, paying close attention to the validity of the support level at 1560 USD; in the medium to long term, strategies need to be adjusted based on the progress of the Pectra upgrade and the dynamics of capital inflows. The market sentiment and fundamentals are intensifying their competition, and investors need to respond flexibly while strictly adhering to risk control discipline.
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