Bitcoin (BTC) is showing positive signs of recovery, helping to improve market sentiment after a long period of volatility and downward pressure. However, many experts believe that the current upward trend is only short-term, and the risk of a deeper correction still exists this year.
According to Crypto Rover’s fractal model analysis, Bitcoin may establish the cycle bottom in 2026 if historical patterns continue to repeat.
Understanding Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle
Crypto Rover explains that Bitcoin’s price movements typically follow a four-year cycle, originating from halving events — when mining rewards are cut in half, reducing the new supply entering the market. This mechanism has repeatedly driven price rallies before entering correction phases.
According to the model, each cycle consists of four distinct phases: accumulation, growth, distribution, and bear market. The accumulation phase occurs when prices are low, and investors begin building positions. This is followed by a growth phase with strong demand, rapidly pushing prices higher.
When the market enters the distribution phase, early investors start taking profits and transferring assets to new capital. Finally, a bear market forms, leading to sharp declines and resetting the cycle. This repeating structure is the foundation of the fractal model.
Why October 2026 Could Be a Key Turning Point
Data from the model indicates that the cycle peak likely occurred at the end of 2025, with Bitcoin reaching an all-time high of $126,000 in October. As predicted, this peak was quickly followed by a sharp correction, coinciding with the market drop on October 11.
Currently, the market structure is believed to have shifted into a downtrend, gradually approaching the cycle bottom. Since the correction, Bitcoin has been fluctuating within large ranges but has not yet established a sustainable upward trend.
“Small Cycles” Explaining Short-Term Gains
At present, BTC is trading below $70,000, with slight daily declines but maintaining some growth for the month, despite weekly declines. This indicates that the market is showing some signs of localized recovery.
However, according to the fractal model, these short-term rallies do not negate the overall downtrend but merely reflect the existence of “small cycles” — short-term ups and downs repeating throughout the larger cycle.
These medium-term fluctuations often confuse investors: corrections during an uptrend can be mistaken for a complete collapse, while rebounds in a bear market can create false expectations.
Crypto Rover’s analysis emphasizes that the current positive signals are not sufficient to confirm a long-term bullish trend. Instead, they are likely just technical rebounds within a market still heading toward a deeper decline in the near future.
Disclaimer: The information on this page may come from third parties and does not represent the views or opinions of Gate. The content displayed on this page is for reference only and does not constitute any financial, investment, or legal advice. Gate does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information and shall not be liable for any losses arising from the use of this information. Virtual asset investments carry high risks and are subject to significant price volatility. You may lose all of your invested principal. Please fully understand the relevant risks and make prudent decisions based on your own financial situation and risk tolerance. For details, please refer to
Disclaimer.
Related Articles
Gold and silver fall across the board, and the BTC/ETH volatility index rises slightly
On April 13, gold and silver prices fell to $4,732.92 per ounce and $74.209 per ounce, respectively. The BTC volatility index rose by 0.42%, and the ETH volatility index rose by 0.31%. The U.S. dollar versus the Chinese yuan and the Japanese yen edged up slightly, major European stock indexes generally fell, while WTI and Brent crude oil prices rose. The Gate platform supports trading for multiple asset types.
GateNews18m ago
BTC 15-minute rise of 0.86%: A rebound driven by a convergence of short liquidations and inflows into ETFs
2026-04-13 13:45 to 2026-04-13 14:00 (UTC), the BTC price fluctuated within the 70945.9 to 71699.9 USDT range. Within 15 minutes, it recorded a notable gain of +0.86%, with a swing of 1.06%. Market attention has surged, short-term volatility has clearly intensified, and on-chain large transfers, spot, and derivatives trading volumes have expanded in sync, indicating that the activity level of funds by major players is at one of the highest points of the year.
The main driving force behind this anomaly is that BTC has been probing the 72000–73500 USDT range with a large amount of leverage shorts
GateNews22m ago
Bernstein: The Bitcoin market has already priced in the risk from quantum computing, and developers have 3 to 5 years to push forward with a post-quantum upgrade
Bernstein’s research report states that the Bitcoin pullback reflects market concerns about the risks of quantum computing, and argues that the quantum threat is manageable and does not constitute a systemic risk. Current technological progress provides a cushion for Bitcoin, giving developers 3 to 5 years to push forward a post-quantum upgrade. Institutional investors will help drive consensus formation, but user migration remains the main challenge.
GateNews23m ago
The New York Times reignites the “Satoshi identity mystery”; after Adam Back was targeted, he quickly clarified
Author: Nancy, PANews
Satoshi Nakamoto’s true identity remains the mystery that has continued in the crypto world for 17 years. Speculation about this pseudonym has never stopped—from cryptographers to corporate founders, various candidates have been brought up in turn, but there has always been a lack of evidence strong enough to settle the matter once and for all.
Recently, The New York Times published a long-form investigation of more than 10,000 words. Based on multiple comparisons drawn from language style, technical pathways, and historical context, it ranked Blockstream CEO Adam Back as the strongest candidate for Satoshi Nakamoto. However, this claim was quickly and clearly denied by Back himself, and the relevant arguments were widely questioned across the industry as being hard to support.
The dispute over Satoshi Nakamoto’s identity reignites as the long-form investigation targets Adam Back
In this investigation, New York Times reporter John Carreyrou spent more than a year thoroughly sifting through decades of archives, as well as the cypherpunk email list to
区块客49m ago
Exodus, the Nasdaq-listed Bitcoin treasury company, sues the W3C to demand enforcement of the acquisition agreement
U.S.-listed Bitcoin custody company Exodus Movement filed a lawsuit in Delaware state court on April 13, seeking W3C Corp and its CEO to carry out the 2025 share acquisition agreement and to speed up the completion of the transaction. Exodus has received approval from the UK’s financial regulator and plans to drive the acquisition forward through litigation and the enforcement of security interests.
GateNews51m ago
