Polymarket 上线"对伊朗军事行动何时结束"预测市场，交易量达 1.2 万美元

Polymarket’s probability for “Israel launching strikes against Yemen before April 30” has fallen to 14%, down 32% over the past 24 hours

On April 14, the probability on Polymarket that Israel will carry out attacks against Yemen before April 30 fell to 14%. U.S. Secretary of State Rubio will host talks in Washington between Israel and Lebanon to discuss a ceasefire and a peace agreement. After diplomatic mediation was launched, market expectations for Israel’s new front were significantly reduced.

Encourage innovation! A U.S. judge prohibits Arizona from regulating prediction markets and pauses the prosecution of Kalshi

A U.S. federal district court ruled that Arizona is prohibited from using its gambling laws to prosecute the prediction market platform Kalshi, finding that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission has exclusive jurisdiction. The ruling affects the line between state and federal authority over financial market regulation, while Kalshi insists that its business is a financial product rather than traditional gambling. Courts in different states have reached differing decisions on prediction markets, and the Trump family has also expressed support for prediction markets.

Polymarket prediction: After one day since "Genius" opened, FDV has exceeded $500 million. The probability has risen to 42%, with a 24-hour increase of 34%.

Polymarket predicts that the probability of “Genius’s FDV market cap exceeding $500 million one day after opening” has risen to 42%. Genius has opened the airdrop and announced a one-year token lockup. The GENIUS token market cap briefly surpassed $800 million and is currently $620 million.

Encourage innovation! A U.S. judge in France bans Arizona’s regulation of prediction markets and pauses the prosecution against Kalshi.

A U.S. federal district court ruled that Arizona is prohibited from using its gambling laws to prosecute the prediction market platform Kalshi, concluding that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission has exclusive jurisdiction. The ruling affects the boundary between state and federal authority in regulating financial markets, and Kalshi maintains that its business is a financial product rather than traditional gambling. Decisions on prediction markets differ across states, and the Trump family has also expressed support for prediction markets.

Encourage innovation! A U.S. judge and a French judge ban Arizona from regulating prediction markets, and suspend the prosecution of Kalshi

A U.S. federal district court ruled that Arizona is prohibited from using its gambling laws to prosecute prediction market platform Kalshi, finding that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission has exclusive jurisdiction. The ruling affects the boundary between state and federal authority in financial market regulation, while Kalshi insists that its business is a financial product rather than traditional gambling. Decisions regarding prediction markets vary from state to state, and the Trump family has also expressed support for prediction markets.

Polymarket Prepares pUSD Rollout and Protocol Upgrade to Cut Failed Trades

Polymarket's protocol upgrade introduces pUSD, a USDC-backed collateral token on Polygon, enhancing order management, reducing failed trades, and lowering gas costs. The update aims for a smoother user experience while improving trading architecture and security.