Ethereum network activity reaches a record high, but ETH price has plummeted 50% over four months, with capital outflows becoming a key pressure.

March 12 News: Despite Ethereum network activity continuing to hit new records, ETH prices are under significant pressure. Data shows that recently, ETH prices have hovered around $2,000, contrasting sharply with the sustained on-chain activity growth over the past few months.

On-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant reports that as of February 2026, the number of daily active addresses on Ethereum has approached 2 million, doubling the peak during the 2021 bull market. At the same time, smart contract calls have reached new highs, with daily contract interactions exceeding 40 million, significantly higher than during the 2018 and 2021 bull markets.

In previous market cycles, increased network usage typically indicated higher token demand, driving prices up. However, this cycle shows a clear divergence. Data indicates that over the past four months, ETH prices have fallen by more than 50%. CryptoQuant analysts note that the traditional correlation between application layer growth and ETH valuation is weakening.

Fund flow data also shows market pressure. Recently, inflows on the Ethereum chain have been significantly higher than on the Bitcoin network, which historically often signals increased selling activity. Additionally, Ethereum’s realized market cap has turned negative, indicating outflows exceeding inflows.

Looking back at historical cycles, during the sharp rise of Ethereum prices in 2021, its realized market cap was also in a continuous growth phase; when this indicator turned negative in 2022, the market entered a clear downtrend. The current signs of capital outflow are viewed by some analysts as similar signals.

From a price structure perspective, ETH recently formed a local low around $1,912 before rebounding and regaining the $2,000 level. Currently, prices fluctuate mainly between $2,000 and $2,055. The 20-day moving average is around $2,024, serving as a key short-term battleground, while the 50-day moving average is approximately $2,219, indicating that the medium-term trend remains weak.

On the technical side, the $2,080 to $2,135 range is seen as a critical resistance zone. If prices break through this area, the next targets could be $2,200 or even $2,389. On the downside, $1,980 and $1,910 are key support levels to watch in the short term.

Data from derivatives platform CoinGlass shows that in the past 24 hours, ETH liquidation amounts reached about $43.3 million, with roughly $24.6 million being short liquidations. Analysts point out that unless there is a clear improvement in capital flow conditions, ETH’s short-term trajectory will heavily depend on breakthroughs at key technical levels.