Trump says Iran war may end soon, causing crude oil to plummet and Bitcoin to rise. MicroStrategy invests an additional $1.28 billion, but analysts warn of supply and demand imbalance risks.
US-Iran war may end early, boosting stocks and crypto markets
According to CoinDesk, U.S. President Trump revealed in the early morning Taiwan time that the military operations against Iran are significantly ahead of schedule. Originally expected to take four to five weeks, the Iran-U.S. conflict may end soon, with further details expected at 5:30 p.m. Eastern Time.
Following the announcement, WTI crude oil, which had surged 30% to $120 due to fears of war, plunged sharply to $85, a 6% drop in one day.
Meanwhile, cryptocurrencies and U.S. stocks continued their rally. Before market close, the Nasdaq rose 1.25%, and the S&P 500 increased 0.8%. Bitcoin (BTC) gained 2.4% in the past 24 hours, surpassing $69,000.
Image source: CoinMarketCap Bitcoin rose 2.4% in the last 24 hours, trading above $69,000.
MicroStrategy buys about 18,000 more Bitcoins last week
Crypto-related stocks also rose, including Circle (CRCL), which jumped 10%, and MicroStrategy (MSTR) and Coinbase (COIN), which increased 5% and 2%, respectively.
According to SEC filings, MicroStrategy spent $1.28 billion last week to purchase 17,994 Bitcoins. This is the largest acquisition since January, when it spent $2.13 billion to buy 22,305 Bitcoins.
MicroStrategy stated that the average purchase price for the latest batch of Bitcoin was $70,946, below its overall average holding cost of $75,862. The company’s total Bitcoin holdings now amount to 738,731 coins, with a total investment of about $56 billion.
Data from BitBo shows that approximately 450 Bitcoins are mined daily, totaling about 3,150 per week. The amount MicroStrategy bought this time represents roughly five weeks’ worth of new Bitcoin supply.
Image source: BitBo current daily Bitcoin mining output
S&P 500 and Bitcoin technical analysis
Senior analyst Rakesh Upadhyay from Cointelegraph notes that the S&P 500 closed below 6,775 last Friday, with bears trying to take control. The next key support level is at 6,550; if broken, the correction could deepen to 6,147. Buyers need to push the price above the moving average to attempt a rebound toward 7,290.
As for Bitcoin, even though it broke below the 20-day exponential moving average of $68,553 last week, it did not break support levels, indicating buying interest at lower levels.
If it can stay above this moving average, the likelihood of breaking through resistance at $74,508 increases, with potential to reach $84,000. Conversely, if support is broken, the price could drop to the critical level of $60,000.
Image source: Rakesh Upadhyay If Bitcoin can stay above the moving average, breaking through $74,508 resistance becomes more likely, with potential to reach $84,000.
Bitcoin spot and derivatives market supply and demand imbalance
Japanese crypto analyst 仮想 NISHI pointed out in a recent market report that Bitcoin has recently been viewed as a government-free asset and a safe haven amid rising Middle East geopolitical risks. Additionally, falling U.S. Treasury yields have contributed to the price increase.
Market order flow shows that in the spot market, sellers are currently stronger, while in derivatives, buyers hold the advantage.
仮想 NISHI noted that the simultaneous occurrence of spot selling and derivatives buying can easily cause supply and demand imbalance, making the market prone to downward volatility. Furthermore, the put-call ratio in options markets is rising again, indicating a growing bearish sentiment among investors.
Looking ahead, the negative correlation between Bitcoin and oil prices may strengthen, with market focus on whether oil prices will stay high or stabilize.
Related reading:
Crypto ETFs face longest outflow period! Over $9 billion lost in Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs in four months
This content is compiled by Crypto Agent from various sources, reviewed and edited by Crypto City. It is still in training, so there may be logical biases or inaccuracies. The content is for reference only and should not be considered investment advice.
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