On March 4th, it was reported that the decentralized prediction platform Polymarket recently took down a highly controversial prediction market that allowed users to bet on “when a nuclear weapon will be detonated.” The contract was removed after receiving widespread criticism on social media. Previously, its total trading volume had exceeded $838,000, making it one of the most controversial crypto prediction market incidents recently.
This prediction market set multiple time points, including March 31, 2026, June 30, 2026, and whether a nuclear explosion would occur before 2027. The platform previously showed that market participants had priced the probability of a nuclear explosion this year at 22%. As the controversy grew, the market was ultimately removed by the platform.
Prediction market analyst Dustin Gouker publicly stated that it is unreasonable to allow users to speculate on the use of nuclear weapons. He pointed out that although prediction markets can theoretically provide probability information, trading around war and large-scale destructive weapons can easily raise moral and regulatory issues. Additionally, if trading volume is low, it may send misleading signals.
The controversy surrounding Polymarket is not limited to this market. Recent investigations revealed that, just hours before the U.S. and Israel launched military actions against Iran, over 150 accounts concentrated bets on the platform predicting a military strike the next day. These trades ultimately totaled about $855,000 and successfully predicted the timing of the event.
One trader, using the online name “Magamyman,” profited over $553,000 by betting on the conflict and the fate of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Blockchain analytics firm Bubblemaps further pointed out that, hours before the conflict erupted, at least six newly registered accounts profited about $1.2 million through related markets. These trading activities are suspected to be linked to insider information.
Similar controversies have occurred multiple times before. In January of this year, an anonymous trader accurately bet before Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was arrested, earning over $400,000 from related prediction markets. Another incident involved Israeli security agencies investigating two individuals accused of using confidential military information to place bets during the 12-day conflict between Iran and Israel.
As the controversy continues to grow, U.S. regulators are also paying more attention to the potential risks of prediction markets. The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) recently submitted a pre-rulemaking notice to the Office of Management and Budget, planning to solicit industry feedback before establishing formal regulatory frameworks.
CFTC Chair Michael Selig stated that regulation of prediction markets will be one of his key tasks during his term, with the goal of establishing a unified federal regulatory standard across all 50 U.S. states. Analysts believe that if prediction markets related to war, assassinations, or nuclear weapons continue to emerge, the industry’s compliance process may face greater obstacles.
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