Recently, the escalating geopolitical conflict between the United States and Iran unexpectedly triggered a surge in trading activity on prediction market platforms. Blockchain data shows that some newly created accounts precisely bet before airstrikes and profit millions of dollars. This abnormal trading pattern has raised widespread concerns about insider trading and the use of confidential information by insiders.
Polymarket New Accounts Accurately Bet on “Airstrike Before End of February” and Profit Millions of Dollars
Before the U.S. military took action against Iran, the prediction market Polymarket saw trading volumes reaching up to $500 million. Analysis firm Bubblemaps SA pointed out that six new accounts accurately bet on “airstrike before the end of February,” earning about $1 million. The contract accumulated $90 million in trading volume. Some accounts even purchased contracts hours before the airstrike at a low price of $0.01. This highly precise and time-sensitive trading pattern is viewed by analysts as a potential sign of insider trading, raising concerns about market fairness.
Challenges of Macro Environment and Information Asymmetry
Prediction markets allow participants to place financial bets on geopolitical events, reflecting public expectations of macro risks. However, military information is only accessible to a few before public disclosure, creating severe “information asymmetry.” Coupled with the high anonymity of blockchain wallets, privileged insiders have strong incentives to position themselves early. Although the U.S. has hinted at military actions, the market makes reasonable guesses based on publicly available information. Still, clearly distinguishing legal predictions from illegal insider trading remains a significant challenge.
This incident highlights the regulatory gray area surrounding emerging prediction markets. As an offshore platform, Polymarket is not strictly regulated by agencies like the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). In contrast, a regulated competitor, Kalshi, has clear rules; for example, Kalshi recently refused to offer markets based on the death of specific individuals to avoid moral hazards. Kalshi has launched investigations into 200 potential violations, uncovering dozens of cases. Notably, YouTuber MrBeast’s editor Artem Kaptur and former Republican California gubernatorial candidate Kyle Langford have been accused by the platform of insider trading.
(Prediction Market Kalshi Faces Frequent Issues! MrBeast Employee Suspected of Insider Trading, California Gubernatorial Candidate Bets on Their Own Race)
Impact on Financial Markets and Investors
Turning geopolitical events into tradable assets presents a new challenge for traditional investors. While these markets provide alternative indicators of market sentiment, they are also highly uncertain. Recently, Israel has filed charges against individuals suspected of using confidential intelligence to profit from prediction markets, indicating that governments are taking this issue seriously. The public should recognize that emerging assets are heavily driven by news and potential information gaps.
As conflicts continue to escalate, various new contracts have appeared on Polymarket, including questions like whether Iran will close the Strait of Hormuz and who will be Iran’s new Supreme Leader. However, so far, trading volumes for all these contracts remain minimal.
This article about Polymarket new accounts accurately betting on “airstrike before end of February” and profiting millions of dollars was first published by Chain News ABMedia.
Disclaimer: The information on this page may come from third parties and does not represent the views or opinions of Gate. The content displayed on this page is for reference only and does not constitute any financial, investment, or legal advice. Gate does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information and shall not be liable for any losses arising from the use of this information. Virtual asset investments carry high risks and are subject to significant price volatility. You may lose all of your invested principal. Please fully understand the relevant risks and make prudent decisions based on your own financial situation and risk tolerance. For details, please refer to
Disclaimer.
Related Articles
Encourage innovation! A U.S. judge bans Arizona’s regulation of prediction markets, and suspends the prosecution of Kalshi.
A U.S. federal district court ruled that Arizona is barred from using its gambling laws to prosecute prediction market platform Kalshi, finding that the federal Commodity Futures Trading Commission has exclusive jurisdiction. The decision affects the boundary between state and federal authority in financial market regulation, while Kalshi insists that its business is a financial product rather than traditional gambling. Rulings on prediction markets vary across states, and the Trump family has also expressed support for prediction markets.
CryptoCity37m ago
Encourage innovation! U.S. judges ban Arizona state regulation of prediction markets, and halt the prosecution of Kalshi
A U.S. federal district court ruled that Arizona is barred from using its gambling laws to prosecute prediction market platform Kalshi, finding that the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission has exclusive jurisdiction. The ruling affects the boundary between state and federal authority over financial market regulation, and Kalshi insists that its business is a financial product rather than traditional gambling. Courts in different states have reached different decisions regarding prediction markets, and the Trump family has also expressed support for prediction markets.
CryptoCity3h ago
Gate Stock Zone launches 5 Pre-IPO perpetual contracts from OpenAI, Anthropic, and others on April 13, offering 1–10x leverage trading
Gate News message, according to a Gate official announcement on April 13, 2026
The Gate Stock Trading Zone will be available for the pre-market trading of five USDT-settled perpetual contract order books—OPENAI, ANTHROPIC, ANDURIL, KALSHI, and POLYMARKET—starting on April 13, 2026 at 20:00 (UTC+8). It supports 1x to 10x leverage for long and short positions.
OpenAI is an artificial intelligence research laboratory that has developed products such as ChatGPT and DALL·E. It is currently in the Pre-IPO stage. Anthropic is a large-model company founded by former core members of OpenAI, focusing on secure and reliable AI. Anduril Industries is an AI and autonomous defense technology company co-founded by Palmer Luckey, the founder of Oculus. Kalshi is a prediction market exchange regulated by the U.S. CFTC. Polymarket is the world’s largest decentralized prediction market.
All contracts calculate prices using a valuation unit of $1 billion. For example, when a company’s valuation is $800 billion, the unit price is $800.
GateAnnouncement5h ago
Polymarket high-win-rate account buys $58k in wagers betting on BLG to beat JDG
The message says that on April 13, a certain account placed a win bet of about $58k on Bilibili Gaming in the League of Legends esports World Cup China qualifiers, with a win rate of over 77%. Bilibili Gaming has been in good form recently, while JD Gaming has performed poorly; the winner will have a chance to advance to the main esports World Cup event.
GateNews6h ago
Polymarket’s fees over the past week reached $9.8 million, a record high
Gate News update, April 13, @defioasis data shows that Polymarket’s weekly platform fees reached $9.8 million in the past week, setting a historical high, with annualized fees exceeding $500 million. In the same period, on-chain prediction market fees first surpassed $10 million for the week, with Polymarket accounting for 96.9% of the market share.
GateNews7h ago
A massive whale has accumulated purchases of $527k to bet on the downfall of the Iranian regime by June 30, and is now down $345k
A whale-sized investor was already down $345k when betting that the Iranian regime would collapse on June 30, and the prior investment also failed. The market’s judgment rules are strict, and only under specific conditions is a regime collapse recognized; ordinary regime change is not considered.
GateNews11h ago
