Sui (SUI) has fallen 3% as of Tuesday, continuing the bearish breakout from a short-lived consolidation range confirmed the previous day. Retail sentiment appears cautious, with long liquidations accelerating and funding rates dropping sharply, signaling that traders are increasingly favoring short positions. Technical analysis points to a potential further correction toward the $0.70 level.
Derivatives Data Indicates Bearish Bias
Despite the recent launch of the Grayscale Sui Staking ETF, which provides exposure to SUI, retail demand has failed to materialize. Derivatives market data confirms a bearish tilt among traders, consistent with the risk-averse mood in broader crypto markets. CoinGlass reports that SUI open interest (OI) stands at $458.66 million, down 2.08% over the past 24 hours, reflecting capital outflows from derivatives. Long liquidations reached $965,470, surpassing short liquidations of $347,200, while the long-to-short ratio dropped below 1 to 0.9558, indicating more active shorts than longs. The OI-weighted funding rate fell to -0.0096%, showing strong trader appetite for short positions.
Technical Outlook: Support at $0.88 and Target at $0.70
SUI’s four-day decline has broken below the $0.88 support level, extending the downtrend toward a lower leg. The downward slopes of both the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) reinforce the long-term bearish bias. Price has moved below the consolidation range defined by the 100% and 78.6% trend-based Fibonacci retracement levels of $0.88 and $1.05, measured from the October 13 high of $3.01 to the January 6 high of $2.02 and the November 21 low at $1.31. The next target, aligned with the 1.272 Fibonacci retracement, sits at $0.70, implying roughly 18% downside risk from current levels.
Short-term indicators show fading buying pressure. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 31 struggles to recover from the oversold zone, suggesting persistent bearish momentum. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains near its signal line with a contracting positive histogram, signaling the potential for a bearish crossover and renewed selling pressure.
Path to Recovery
For SUI to stabilize and initiate a short-term rebound, daily closes above $0.88 are crucial. Surpassing this level could ease downside pressure and pave the way for a recovery toward the $1.00 psychological level, followed by resistance at $1.05. Until then, technical and derivatives data indicate that bearish momentum may continue to dominate the market.
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