On February 10th, as the spot price of gold approaches $5,000 per ounce, the valuation gap between altcoins and gold has widened sharply. Crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe pointed out that the current “altcoin to gold” ratio has fallen to its lowest historical levels, with the weekly RSI dropping to 25, approaching extreme levels seen during the 2020 pandemic black swan event. This indicator is viewed as a “structural undervaluation” signal for non-mainstream crypto assets relative to precious metals.
Against the backdrop of a strong rally in gold, RWA tokens linked to physical gold have become some of the few contrarian assets. PAX Gold (PAXG) fluctuates around $5,035, with a daily trading volume exceeding $400 million; Tether Gold (XAUT) remains near $5,013, with a cumulative increase of over 11% in the past month. However, overall, the tokenized commodity market size is only about $800 million to $1 billion, still very limited compared to the global spot gold market worth trillions of dollars.
Industry data shows that by 2026, with increased regulatory transparency and institutional efforts to connect on-chain funds and vault products, the tokenized precious metals market will reach new highs, but trading volatility will remain intense. Recently, gold and silver futures have both pulled back simultaneously, triggering high-frequency liquidations in the RWA derivatives market, with perpetual contract weekly trading volume once surpassing $15.5 billion.
In stark contrast, many small- and mid-cap altcoins are facing dual pressures of “dilutive issuance and tightening liquidity.” Market funds are more inclined toward defensive assets, making gold and its on-chain reflection tools more attractive. Some opinions suggest that these extreme readings may indicate long-term allocation opportunities, but they could also be just value traps.
From the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio to relative altcoin valuations, the signals conveyed by the data are that crypto assets are being priced more as high-beta tech assets rather than “digital gold.” Future trends will still depend on macro liquidity and risk appetite shifts.
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