Bitcoin price hits oversold zone, ETF funds flow back: $76,000 becomes a key defensive line

On February 3rd, news reports that after several days of continuous selling, Bitcoin prices showed signs of recovery today, with both technical and capital indicators signaling a phased easing. Driven by weakened forced liquidation pressure and a renewed net inflow into the US spot Bitcoin ETF, BTC experienced a short-term rebound. At press time, Bitcoin was trading at $78,659, up approximately 3.8% over the past 24 hours, after briefly dropping to $75,400, the lowest since April 2025.

Despite the price rebound, medium-term pressure remains unresolved. Over the past week, Bitcoin has declined by about 11%, retracing nearly 40% from its all-time high of $126,080 in October 2025. Derivatives market data shows a clear cooling of speculative enthusiasm, with total trading volume dropping to around $78.9 billion, but open interest slightly increased, indicating some funds are cautiously re-entering the market.

Key changes are occurring on the capital side. Data shows that the US spot Bitcoin ETF recorded approximately $562 million in net inflows on the day, ending five consecutive days of outflows. IBIT, FBTC, and BITB became the main sources of inflow. Such funds often represent spot demand rather than short-term trading, providing a buffer to the market’s supply and demand structure, and the timing suggests some institutions believe current prices are attractive.

On-chain and derivatives signals are also worth noting. CryptoNiel pointed out that Bitcoin’s funding rate has been negative for several days, indicating that bears are in control. Historically, such structures often create conditions for short-term rebounds. However, BTC has yet to fill the CME gap near $84,000, and upward momentum has not fully recovered.

From a technical perspective, BTC has entered oversold territory, with RSI dropping below 30 and the price close to the lower Bollinger Band. If selling pressure further diminishes, the price may move toward the middle band in the short term. Currently, it remains constrained by the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, with the $82,000–$85,000 range presenting significant resistance. The key demand zone lies between $76,000 and $78,000; losing this support could further amplify risks.