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Bitcoin hovers at $87K, testing whether ETF investors stay or sell at breakeven.
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$6B outflows hit ETFs, but long-term holders keep confidence above realized price.
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Binance Reserve at $62K could set post-ETF bear bottom, redefining market support.
Bitcoin is trading near $87,000, a critical juncture testing ETF investor conviction. According to CryptoQuant analyst MorenoDV_, this level matches the realized price of Bitcoin ETF holders at $86,600. “This zone acts as a psychological pivot: holding above realized price reinforces conviction & stabilizes flows, while sustained trading below it tends to accelerate redemptions,” MorenoDV_ explained.
Besides, this line signals whether investors tolerate drawdowns or exit at breakeven. Hence, Bitcoin’s current level does not confirm trends but gauges behavioral stress.
Since peaking at $72.6 billion in cumulative flows on October 10, 2025, Bitcoin ETFs have seen $6.1 billion in net outflows. Current holdings dropped to $66.5 billion, marking an 8.4% decline from the all-time high. However, realized price has remained stable, suggesting investors absorbed significant selling pressure.
Moreover, less committed capital likely drove these outflows, while long-term investors remain in place. Consequently, Bitcoin’s position above the ETF realized price could maintain investor confidence and stabilize flows.
Binance Reserve Realized Price Emerges as Key Support
CryptoQuant analyst burakkesmeci highlighted another critical level: Binance Reserve Realized Price (RP) at $62,000. This metric shows the average acquisition cost of Bitcoin reserves on Binance. Historically, Binance Reserve RP separated bear markets from bull trends. Before Bitcoin Spot ETFs launched in January 2024, this level was $42,000. Post-ETF, the RP rose to $62,000.
“Bitcoin has never tested this level since Spot ETF approval!” burakkesmeci noted. Currently, Bitcoin is technically in a bear cycle, but the market structure has shifted due to institutional participation and ETF adoption. Hence, $62,000 may act as the first major support in the post-ETF era. Additionally, sustained holding above this level could redefine bear cycle bottoms.
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