The risk of a US government shutdown rises to 75%, Bitcoin drops to $87,000, and ETF funds see significant outflows.

January 26 News, amid rising concerns that the U.S. government may face a shutdown, Bitcoin prices continued their recent correction trend, briefly approaching the $87,000 mark on Sunday evening. Risk aversion sentiments rapidly spread across the entire crypto asset market. Data shows that Bitcoin has fallen approximately 1.9% in the past 24 hours, trading at $87,158. Ethereum also retreated to $2,847, down more than 3%.

Presto Research analyst Rick Maeda stated that this downward movement was not triggered by negative news specific to the crypto industry but was driven by macro risks. “Uncertainty in funding and political deadlock have heightened market tension. The risk of a U.S. government shutdown has become a core variable suppressing risk assets, and the crypto market has also been impacted.”

According to the Associated Press, Congress is divided over funding for the Department of Homeland Security, with Democrats threatening to block the relevant bills, causing the market to reprice political risks. Vincent Liu, Chief Investment Officer of Kronos Research, citing Polymarket data, said that the probability of a partial U.S. government shutdown has risen to 75%, leading funds to move toward defensive positions.

Institutional fund flows also reflect this cautious sentiment. SoSoValue statistics show that as of the week ending January 23, there was approximately $1.33 billion in net outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, marking the worst performance since February 2025. Liu pointed out that although overall funds are retreating, some institutions are still opportunistically positioning in industry infrastructure assets, such as ARK Invest’s purchases of COIN, Bullish, and Circle stocks, indicating that the long-term bullish thesis remains intact.

However, Maeda believes that such operations more reflect ARK’s consistent crypto preference and do not represent the risk appetite of mainstream institutions. “The continued outflow at the ETF level indicates that institutional demand remains marginally weak.”

Next, the market will focus on the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision and U.S. Producer Price Index data to assess inflation and policy paths. For Bitcoin, whether ETF funds stabilize and whether the price can hold key support zones will be critical variables for short-term trends.