In brief
- Prediction market users have increased Bitcoin’s chance of crashing to $69,000 from 11.6% a week ago to 30% today.
- The top crypto’s choppy price action and failed recovery attempts are a result of defensive capital and capped open interest.
- Gold is hogging Bitcoin’s safe-haven spotlight, absorbing capital inflows, Decrypt was told.
Bitcoin’s failed attempt to recover above $90,000 has eroded investor confidence, sending bearish sentiment flying.
Users on prediction market Myriad, owned by Decrypt’s parent company Dastan, have raised their expectation of Bitcoin crashing to $69,000 from 22% to 30% in less than 24 hours. This probability has grown from a mere 11.6% last Thursday, highlighting rising bearish sentiment.
Bitcoin dropped 6.7% over the past week, and is currently trading at around $89,000, down 1% over the past 24 hours, according to CoinGecko data.
Since the start of 2026, Bitcoin has produced higher highs and higher lows, signaling a bullish market structure. Its steady ascent pushed it to $97,000 on January 15; at the time, Myriad users placed an 87% chance on its next move carrying it to $100,000.
U.S. President Donald Trump’s plans to annex Greenland and impose tariffs on European countries over the weekend triggered a brutal drop that liquidated $865 million in positions in 24 hours, adding to the market volatility.
Trump’s subsequent pause of his Greenland and EU tariff plans triggered an impulsive Bitcoin bounce to $90,000.
In total, $2 billion worth of positions were culled in a short time due to the whipsaw and Bitcoin’s increasingly macro asset behavior in 2026.
What’s driving Bitcoin’s decline now?
“In the short term, Bitcoin’s weakness is driven by a clear absence of interest from large players at current levels,” Georgii Verbitskii, Founder of a non-custodial Web3 platform, TYMIO, told Decrypt.
Due to the influence of geopolitical uncertainty, investors are defensive with their capital, he explained.
Derivatives data reflect this defensiveness.
Over the last ten days, aggregated open interest—the total number of open positions—has remained stuck between 240,000 and 265,000 BTC, indicating a lack of new capital and subsequently influencing Bitcoin’s choppy price action.
“Even strong altcoins are struggling, like Avalanche, which is down roughly 66% since September, despite having worked with major institutions such as JPMorgan and WisdomTree,” Ryan Li, CEO and Co-founder of AI-driven crypto insights platform Surf, told Decrypt. “This shows how unforgiving the market has become, especially for altcoins.”
The second-order effects come from gold being in the spotlight, which has led to it absorbing most of the attention as the primary hedge—leaving Bitcoin sidelined, Verbitskii said.
He tempered his outlook, suggesting that this is not a regime change caused by panic, “but rather a period of risk repricing where Bitcoin is not the preferred asset.” But this outlook could change with the reintroduction of demand from larger players. Until then, he expects sentiment to remain uncertain.
Disclaimer: The information on this page may come from third parties and does not represent the views or opinions of Gate. The content displayed on this page is for reference only and does not constitute any financial, investment, or legal advice. Gate does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information and shall not be liable for any losses arising from the use of this information. Virtual asset investments carry high risks and are subject to significant price volatility. You may lose all of your invested principal. Please fully understand the relevant risks and make prudent decisions based on your own financial situation and risk tolerance. For details, please refer to
Disclaimer.
Related Articles
MicroStrategy Stock Rallies as Bitcoin Breaks $78K, Unrealized Gains Return to $1.37B
MicroStrategy's stock surged 13.83% as Bitcoin reclaimed $78,000, returning the company to an unrealized profit of $1.37 billion. The rise follows easing tensions in the Middle East and a broader rally in risk assets, despite criticism of its preferred stock.
GateNews1h ago
Morgan Stanley Purchases 177.76 BTC Worth $13.75 Million
Gate News message, Morgan Stanley bought 177.76 BTC worth $13.75M three hours ago. The firm now holds 1,347.54 BTC worth $103.94M in total.
GateNews4h ago
BTC fell below 77000 USDT
Gate News bot message, Gate quotes show that BTC fell below 77000 USDT, trading at 76961.6 USDT.
CryptoRadar5h ago
NYSE Welcomes Morgan Stanley’s MSBT Launch as First Spot Bitcoin ETF Issued by a Major US Bank
Bank-backed bitcoin ETFs are accelerating institutional adoption and strengthening market credibility. The NYSE marked a new milestone as Morgan Stanley Investment Management rang the closing bell and celebrated the launch of MSBT, which the NYSE described as the first spot bitcoin ETF by a major
Coinpedia8h ago
BTC falls 0.49% in 15 minutes: fragile long leverage and active sell-off pressure resonate to weigh on the short term
From 18:00 to 18:15 (UTC) on 2026-04-17, the BTC price fluctuated and trended downward within the 77097.4 to 77573.2 USDT range. Over these 15 minutes, the return rate recorded -0.49%, and the amplitude reached 0.61%. During this period, market trading was active; short-term volatility was amplified, and trading attention increased significantly. The main driver behind this abnormal move is that the overall leverage structure is bearish and long positions are fragile. At present, the BTC perpetual contract funding rate has remained negative for 11 consecutive days, indicating that the bears have the upper hand in the market. In addition, futures open interest (OI) is about 628.3 billion USDT, which is at a historical high. During the anomaly window, trading volume increased noticeably. On-chain data shows large amounts of BTC flowing from long-term holder addresses to exchanges, suggesting that active sell orders may have triggered longs to passively reduce positions, amplifying downward price pressure. Moreover, institutional positioning enthusiasm in the mainstream contract market has cooled off; liquidity boundaries have tightened, causing large-trade activity to have an amplified effect on market volatility. In the options market, implied volatility rose to 39.81%, increasing demand for downside protection and reflecting a defensive posture among market participants. Macro-environment volatility and some capital flowing into safe-haven assets, together with the recent regulatory uncertainty-related historical events, reinforced the move, pushing overall market risk appetite lower. Current BTC leverage risks still remain. If, in the future, there are concentrated sell-offs, volatility may be further amplified. It is recommended to continue monitoring sustained high OI levels, the persistence of negative funding rates, and on-chain transfers of large amounts of funds, and to stay alert for whale behavior and any disruptions to market sentiment caused by macro-policy developments. For subsequent price action, please watch key support levels, institutional and whale on-chain moves, and relevant global market news, and guard against short-term risks.
GateNews10h ago
