As MicroStrategy (now renamed Strategy)'s mNAV (market value/net asset value) premium drops to approximately 1.03–1.04 times, this “Bitcoin-native company” is standing at a critical inflection point. The valuation buffer that once supported its stock price to significantly outperform Bitcoin has almost disappeared, implying that Strategy’s future expansion will no longer depend solely on Bitcoin’s upward movement but on whether the capital markets are still willing to continue funding its complex Bitcoin financing structure.
Over the past two years, Strategy has traded at a long-term premium of over 2x to its mNAV, enabling it to issue common stock, convertible bonds, and preferred shares at low cost, then use the proceeds to increase Bitcoin holdings, forming a positive flywheel. But now, with the premium compressed to near parity, this model has clearly slowed down. As of now, the company holds about 670,000 Bitcoins worth over $63 billion, but the disconnect between its market value and Bitcoin assets has sparked fierce debate over whether it is “undervalued” or if the “structural risk pricing has been completed.”
Some bullish observers believe that an mNAV around 1x actually provides an ideal entry point, where even a slight premium can amplify Bitcoin exposure. Meanwhile, Strategy is accelerating its transformation into a “yield-bearing Bitcoin vehicle,” for example through the annualized approximately 11% STRC preferred shares, providing funding for subsequent Bitcoin purchases. Supporters argue that as long as time is sufficient and fiat currency continues to depreciate, this model does not rely on short-term price increases.
But the risks are equally apparent. In Q4 2025, the company recorded over $17 billion in unrealized impairment losses, with annual losses exceeding $5 billion. Against the backdrop of the premium disappearing, this has shaken market confidence. More critically, MSTR’s stock performance over recent months, half a year, and a year has lagged behind Bitcoin itself, weakening the core logic of “holding stock is better than directly holding coins or ETFs.”
The current question is very clear: after the speculative premium recedes, can Bitcoin-native companies still operate efficiently through equity and preferred stock financing? If demand from capital markets cannot be restored, Strategy’s Bitcoin experiment may stall; if macro easing, rate cut expectations, and long-term Bitcoin appreciation form a synergy, this model still has room to regain recognition.
As mNAV returns to 1x, it is becoming a real-world stress test to see whether the capital markets, in a calm state, are still willing to continue pricing the “leveraged Bitcoin strategy.”
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