Will Bitcoin retake the $100,000 mark in January? 3 charts will give you the answer.

Bitcoin starts 2026 with a sideways stance around the $88,000 mark, extending a trading range for several weeks. Although prices seem stagnant, on-chain data reveals subtle market movements beneath the surface.

Three indicators from CryptoQuant show selling pressure gradually easing, despite ongoing macro uncertainties that continue to restrain growth.

Long-term Holders Signal Accumulation

After a sharp correction at the end of 2025, Bitcoin is still struggling to regain key resistance levels. The lack of continuous buying has made market sentiment fragile, with traders patiently waiting for confirmation that the correction has truly ended.

The first signal comes from the supply data of the long-term holder group (LTH). After months of negative values, the net change in LTH supply over 30 days has turned positive, increasing by approximately 10,700 BTC.

Bitcoin supply for long-term holders | Source: X/DarkfostThis development indicates that long-term investors have ceased widespread coin distribution. Instead, supply is gradually returning to the hands of steadfast holders — a pattern often seen during accumulation phases, rather than at market peaks.

LTH SOPR Indicator: Balance Instead of Giving Up

The second chart tracks the spent output profit ratio of long-term investors (SOPR). This index reflects whether they are selling at a profit or a loss.

Currently, LTH SOPR hovers around the neutral level of 1.0, indicating that long-term investors are not panicking or rushing to sell at a loss.

Historically, this behavior often coincides with the market finding its balance after a correction, rather than preparing for a deeper decline.

Outflow of Funds from Exchanges: Immediate Selling Pressure Diminishes

The third indicator focuses on Bitcoin net flow on exchanges. Recent data shows continued net outflows, with more BTC leaving exchanges than being deposited.

This helps reduce immediate sell pressure in the spot market.

Bitcoin Exchange Net Flow | Source: X/CryptoQuantHowever, the inability of prices to recover strongly reflects cautious buying, possibly due to limited liquidity and delayed expectations of rate cuts in the US.

Bitcoin Recovery Outlook in January

Combining these three indicators, the Bitcoin market is gradually shifting toward a more positive outlook. Supply-side pressure is easing, and long-term investor confidence remains intact.

However, prices are still confined within a sideways range due to weak demand and macroeconomic barriers. For Bitcoin to break through the $100,000 mark in January, a new catalyst will be needed.

Without a breakthrough momentum, Bitcoin is likely to continue accumulating, building a foundation for a stronger recovery later in 2026, rather than experiencing an immediate sharp increase.

Mr. Giáo