Grayscale 2026 Crypto Outlook: BTC Expected to Reach New High in the First Half of the Year, Regulation and Hedging Demand as Key Supports

Grayscale (Grayscale) Research Director Zach Pandl stated in a recent interview that the crypto market will undergo significant structural changes by 2026. The core drivers come from two main factors: first, the ongoing increase in demand from investors for hedging and alternative store-of-value assets in the global macro environment; second, the gradual clarification of crypto regulatory frameworks in major markets. He pointed out that with regulatory clarity improving and institutional capital continuing to flow in, digital assets are accelerating toward a more institutionalized and mainstream development stage.

Unresolved macroimbalances, Bitcoin remains the core store-of-value asset

Pandl noted that the crypto market encompasses diverse technologies and applications, but in terms of overall capital flow, Bitcoin remains the most core asset, driven mainly by global demand for alternative store-of-value tools.

He stated that the expansion of global debt and fiscal deficits, along with rising risks of fiat currency devaluation, continue to prompt investors to adjust their asset allocations. These macroimbalances show no signs of improvement, and related investment behaviors are expected to persist until 2026.

Regulatory progress clarifies, U.S. market structure legislation becomes a key support

On the regulatory front, Pandl reviewed recent developments along a timeline. He pointed out that in 2023, Grayscale won a lawsuit over Bitcoin ETPs, in 2024 Bitcoin and Ethereum ETPs will be listed, and in 2025 the U.S. will pass regulations such as the GENIUS Act, indicating that the regulatory direction is gradually taking shape.

Looking ahead to 2026, Grayscale expects the U.S. Congress to continue advancing legislation on crypto market structure, establishing a more comprehensive federal-level regulatory framework for digital assets.

Bipartisan consensus is key, token issuance may become a new corporate option

Pandl pointed out that although the market structure bill has been delayed due to the government shutdown, bipartisan negotiations are still ongoing, and it is expected to return to the legislative track in early 2026. He emphasized that maintaining bipartisan support on crypto issues is crucial for the industry’s long-term development.

He further stated that if the bill passes, it will provide clear legal positioning for most digital assets, potentially encouraging startups, established companies, and even large publicly listed firms to incorporate tokens into their capital structures alongside stocks and bonds.

Price outlook remains positive but still depends on regulatory progress

Regarding price expectations, Grayscale believes Bitcoin could hit new highs again in the first half of 2026. Pandl pointed out that a weakening dollar, a rate-cutting environment, and the strengthening of store-of-value assets like gold and silver are all favorable for Bitcoin and some mainstream crypto assets.

However, he also warned that these optimistic scenarios depend on continued legislative progress in regulation. If crypto issues become highly politicized during an election year, it could pose a downside risk to the market.

Crypto ETFs continue to expand, staking features become new competitive focus

Pandl said that with the SEC providing general listing standards, the launch of crypto ETFs has accelerated significantly. Grayscale has recently launched ETFs for Solana (staked), XRP, Dogecoin, and Chainlink, and more mainstream tokens with practical applications and institutional demand are expected to be included in product lines by 2026.

He pointed out that staking yields will become an important differentiator for ETFs, alongside the development of derivatives such as options and futures.

DAT enthusiasm cools, limited impact in 2026

Regarding the digital asset treasury (DAT), Pandl believes that the operational model of related companies is closer to closed-end funds, with low trading frequency and limited impact on market prices. While it can still meet some investors’ needs for crypto asset allocation through stock channels, it is not expected to be a major market driver in 2026.

(Grayscale 2026 Digital Asset Outlook: Which Tokens Are Worth Investing In?)

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