Recent Bitcoin price movements have entered a critical phase, with technical patterns indicating it is approaching the end of a symmetrical triangle. The market is awaiting a directional breakout. Data shows that after falling below $90,000 on December 22, Bitcoin hit a low of $86,740, then entered a consolidation range between $87,000 and $89,000, with short-term buying momentum gradually returning.
From a capital perspective, spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to face pressure. According to SoSoValue data, 12 spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced net outflows of approximately $782 million from December 22 to 26, with total outflows in December reaching $1.08 billion, and November’s outflows even higher at $3.48 billion. The persistent outflow of ETF funds reflects cautious attitudes among some institutional investors regarding Bitcoin’s medium-term trend, which to some extent suppresses market sentiment.
On the macro front, the cooling of Federal Reserve rate cut expectations also exerts downward pressure on Bitcoin prices. Polymarket data shows that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in January is only 13%, while the chance of holding rates steady is as high as 87%. However, rising geopolitical risks have provided temporary support for Bitcoin. Tensions between Russia and Ukraine have heightened risk aversion, prompting some funds to flow back into risk-hedging assets including Bitcoin.
In the derivatives market, short-term trading demand has significantly increased. CoinGlass data indicates that Bitcoin’s weighted funding rate has risen to its highest level since October, while open interest in futures contracts has grown by 7% within 24 hours, showing increased market participation and that short-term bulls are taking the lead.
Technical analysis shows that on the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin has been trading within a symmetrical triangle since mid-November. The Aroon Up indicator has risen to 100%, and the MACD has crossed above the zero line, both signaling bullish momentum. The current market focus is on the resistance level at $90,975. A volume breakout above this level could open upward space, targeting $94,200. Conversely, if the price falls below the $87,000 support, there is a risk of a correction down to $85,000.
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