Despite ongoing pressure on on-chain fundamentals, the price trend of Cardano (ADA) is releasing potential bullish reversal signals, attracting market attention to its short-term rebound prospects. Data shows that since the October 2025 high, Cardano’s price has fallen approximately 60%, but technical patterns indicate that if key resistance levels are broken, ADA still has about 45% upside potential.
According to crypto.news data, Cardano retreated further after its December peak, with the current price nearly 25% below the December high and about 63% below the October peak. Its market capitalization has also shrunk from a high of approximately $35.1 billion to around $12.9 billion, reflecting a significant downward revision of its overall valuation.
From a fundamental perspective, core indicators of the Cardano ecosystem continue to weaken. DefiLlama data shows that the total value locked (TVL) on the Cardano chain’s DeFi protocols has dropped from a high of $544 million in August to about $215 million, a notable decline. A decrease in TVL generally indicates reduced user activity and capital participation, and may also reflect waning investor confidence in the growth prospects of the Cardano network.
Meanwhile, the supply of stablecoins on the Cardano chain is also under pressure. Data indicates that the total market cap of stablecoins has fallen from $40.48 million in November to approximately $37.68 million, further confirming insufficient on-chain capital activity.
The enthusiasm in the derivatives market has also noticeably cooled. CoinGlass data shows that the open interest in ADA futures has decreased from about $1.72 billion in October to $651 million currently, indicating that leveraged traders are reducing their exposure to Cardano, and overall risk appetite is becoming more cautious.
However, from a technical analysis perspective, the price trend of ADA is not entirely pessimistic. The daily chart shows that since early October, ADA has been forming a typical descending wedge pattern, which is often seen as a potential bullish reversal signal. The current price has repeatedly found support along the lower boundary of the wedge, indicating weakening downside momentum.
Momentum indicators also provide some support. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has shown bullish divergence, suggesting that the price decline is not matched by a corresponding decrease in momentum, and the probability of a rebound is increasing. The key level to watch is around $0.39, near the 20-day moving average. A successful breakout above this level would confirm an upward breakout of the wedge.
In an ideal scenario, ADA could rise to around $0.51, representing approximately 45% upside from the current price. Conversely, if the price breaks below the wedge’s lower trendline, it could fall back to around $0.30, a level that has served as important support multiple times over the past year.
Overall, Cardano is at a critical juncture where weakening fundamentals coexist with potential technical reversals. Its short-term trajectory will heavily depend on market sentiment and the breakthrough of key technical levels.
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