Gate Institute: CPI rises then pulls back | Market dominated by risk reduction and defensive sentiment

Cryptocurrency Market Overview

• BTC (-0.91% | Current price 85,356.6 USDT): In the past 24 hours, BTC surged above $89,000 briefly after CPI data release but failed to stabilize. It encountered significant selling pressure in the $89,000–$90,000 range, then quickly retreated, with a low of $84,460. Overall, the pattern shows a failed attempt to break higher followed by a weak pullback and low-range oscillation. The moving average structure remains in a bearish alignment with MA5 < MA10 < MA30, with prices staying below MA30, indicating a short- to medium-term weak trend. Short-term resistance is around $86,000–$86,500. If unable to recover effectively, the market may continue to oscillate or retest lower levels.
• ETH (-0.2% | Current price 2,822.53 USDT): After CPI data briefly boosted risk sentiment, ETH approached $3,000 but failed to hold. It then retreated, with a low of $2,775, showing a consolidation pattern with weak rebound momentum. The moving averages indicate short-term MA oscillating below MA30 without a clear reversal, with price still under downward pressure. Support is near $2,800; if broken, further decline is possible. The key psychological and technical resistance remains at $3,000. The short- to medium-term outlook suggests consolidation between $2,800 and $3,000.
• Altcoins: The Fear & Greed Index remains at 16, indicating extreme fear. Market risk appetite continues to decline, with a defensive stance focused on risk reduction.
• Macro: As of 12:45 AM ( UTC+8 on December 19, spot gold is at $4,348 per ounce, down 0.39% in 24 hours. Major indices: S&P 500 up 0.79% at 6,774.76 points; Dow Jones up 0.14% at 47,951.85 points; Nasdaq up 1.38% at 23,006.36 points.

Hot Tokens in the Spotlight

JELLYJELLY jelly-my-jelly (+45.19%, Market Cap $131 million)

According to Gate data, JELLYJELLY is currently priced at $0.13, up over 45% in 24 hours. Jelly-My-Jelly (JELLYJELLY) is a Solana-based meme coin launched early 2025 via pump.fun platform, relying on community hype and meme culture rather than strong utility.

Recently, some established Solana meme coins have been active. As a veteran Solana meme coin, JELLYJELLY benefited from capital rotation from other tokens like PIPPIN. Additionally, amid a poor market, JELLYJELLY appeared on 24-hour gainers lists on exchanges like Gate, attracting attention and buying, which pushed its price higher.

NBLU NuriTopia (+39.45%, Market Cap $5.57 million)

Gate data shows NBLU is currently priced at $0.0025, up nearly 40% in 24 hours. NuriTopia (NBLU) is a blockchain-based metaverse social platform offering services such as “FRIENDS & HANGOUTS,” virtual dating, NFT marketplace, health consulting, community clubs, virtual offices, etc. Users can create personalized avatars and pets, interact, create content, trade, and earn rewards through activities.

NBLU’s rise may be related to speculation on low-market-cap tokens. It is a long-standing, low-momentum small-cap project with no clear fundamental drivers. Its volatility is likely driven by leverage and chat group hype under low liquidity. Historically, the token has experienced multiple sharp rises and falls, making it susceptible to manipulation.

IR AI Infrared (+24.65%, Market Cap $54.82 million)

Gate data shows IR is currently at $0.2589, up nearly 25% in 24 hours. Infrared Finance (IR) is a core infrastructure protocol on Berachain blockchain, focusing on Berachain’s Proof of Liquidity mechanism. It is the first system to unify liquidity staking, validator infrastructure, and automated yield vaults, forming the backbone of Berachain’s yield economy.

IR’s rise is mainly driven by new token listings and exchange activities. Recently listed on Gate and other major exchanges, IR launched activities like CandyBomb and trading competitions, attracting many users to trade and mine, further boosting volume and price. IR is typical of a new project’s initial high-open phase, with future performance depending on Berachain’s ecosystem development.

Alpha Insights

Approximately $23 billion worth of BTC options are expiring soon, representing the largest short-term risk

About $23 billion in BTC options contracts are set to expire on December 26, 2025 (next Friday), accounting for over half of open interest, a substantial scale. As expiration approaches, volatility often amplifies as traders adjust positions, especially when many contracts expire simultaneously. Meanwhile, 30-day implied volatility has rebounded to nearly 45%; option skew is around -5%, indicating higher demand for put options, which makes downside protection more expensive. This situation is not only short-term but also similar in Q1 and Q2 of 2026, suggesting traders are heavily buying puts to hedge downside risk, with put positions dominating the market.

Notably, BTC has fallen about 30% from its October 2025 peak of over $126,000, and this quarter may mark the worst quarterly performance since the Terra/LUNA collapse in Q2 2022.

Lido DAO accelerates diversification, applying for $60 million in ecosystem funding

Lido DAO is applying for a total of $60 million in ecosystem grants in 2026, aiming to implement the third phase of the GOOSE (Guided Open Objective Setting Exercise) strategic plan, transforming Lido from a single Ethereum LST protocol into a multi-product innovation organization.

Key focuses include expanding product lines, developing new revenue streams, and enhancing long-term protocol resilience, moving beyond its core ETH staking business—currently controlling nearly 24% of Ethereum staked, ranking second in DeFi TVL after Aave. This move aims to diversify and address potential risks, such as previous staking centralization criticisms and debates, while continuing GOOSE/reGOOSE objectives like staking router development, dual governance, L2 integration, and restaking support.

The budget requires approval via LDO holder voting. If approved, it will provide ongoing funding to Lido contributors, the foundation, and related projects for R&D, audits, deployment, and new product development. Community feedback remains calm so far, with no major disputes. Overall, this strategic shift from LST dominance to broader DeFi ecosystem expansion signals Lido’s accelerated diversification and growth plans in 2026. Future concerns include fund allocation efficiency and execution risks.

JPMorgan: predicts stablecoin market cap will reach $500-600 billion by 2028

JPMorgan analysts recently reaffirmed a conservative outlook for the stablecoin market, estimating that by 2028, total market cap will be around $500-600 billion, not reaching $1 trillion. This forecast is significantly lower than other institutions’ optimistic projections, such as Citi’s baseline of $1.9 trillion by 2030 or $4 trillion in a bull market; Standard Chartered expects $2 trillion by 2028.

Since the beginning of this year, the stablecoin market has grown by about $100 billion, surpassing $300 billion in total market cap, mainly driven by Tether (USDT) and Circle (USDC). Demand remains concentrated in crypto-native activities like trading, derivatives collateral, DeFi lending, and idle funds management, rather than broad payment adoption.

JPMorgan analysts believe stablecoin growth will likely track overall crypto market cap, maintaining a stable proportion of around 7-8%. Factors limiting growth include increased circulation velocity in payment systems, competition from bank-tokenized deposits and CBDCs, regulatory preferences for non-transferable designs to maintain financial stability, and the reinforcement of traditional systems like SWIFT through blockchain experiments. Stablecoin growth is unlikely to diverge significantly from the broader crypto ecosystem; payment expansion may not lead to explosive market cap increases, and bank-led tokenization initiatives could further squeeze private stablecoins.
References:

• Gate, https://www.gate.com/trade/BTC_USDT
• Farside Investors, https://farside.co.uk/btc/
• Gate, https://www.gate.com/trade/ETH_USDT
• Farside Investors, https://farside.co.uk/eth/
• Gate, https://www.gate.com/crypto-market-data
• Investing, https://investing.com/indices/usa-indices
• Investing, https://investing.com/currencies/xau-usd
• CoinGecko, https://www.coingecko.com/en/cryptocurrency-heatmap
• Bloomberg, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-18/bitcoin-volatility-rises-ahead-of-23-billion-options-expiration?srnd=phx-crypto
• The Block, https://www.theblock.co/post/383236/jpmorgan-stablecoin-market-projections?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social

Disclaimer Investing in cryptocurrencies involves high risk. Users are advised to conduct independent research and fully understand the nature of assets and products before making any investment decisions. Gate shall not be responsible for any losses or damages resulting from such investment decisions.