After the sharp volatility on Wednesday, Bitcoin prices have gradually stabilized, maintaining around $86,600 with fluctuations. According to data from The Block, as of early Thursday Eastern Time, Bitcoin has slightly increased over the past 24 hours, trading at approximately $86,670. Previously, Bitcoin briefly surged above $90,000 but then quickly retreated, indicating that market sentiment remains cautious.
Analysts point out that recent Bitcoin price fluctuations are mainly influenced by macroeconomic uncertainties, including rising global risk aversion, slowing inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, deleveraging in the derivatives market, and increased correlation with US stocks. Nick Ruck, Director of Research at LVRG, stated that the current trend more reflects year-end asset allocation adjustments, and the “Christmas rally” expectations are cooling down.
Vincent Liu, Chief Investment Officer at Kronos Research, believes that Bitcoin oscillating between $85,000 and $86,000 is a normal price rebalancing after an upward move. As capital enthusiasm wanes and leverage levels decrease, the market is waiting for new liquidity or clear catalytic events. Until then, sideways trading may remain the main theme.
Regarding whether a “crypto winter” will occur, Liu said the current risks are limited. He pointed out that as long as Bitcoin remains above the true market average of around $81,000, the overall structure remains healthy. Only if it effectively falls below this level should the market be alert to a deeper correction.
On the macro front, the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook remains a key focus. Although recent rate cuts have been consecutive, Fed Chair Powell hinted that rate cuts might pause in January. CME FedWatch shows a probability of over 70% that rates will not be cut next month. However, US President Trump’s latest comments have attracted market attention; he stated that the next Fed Chair will “firmly support significant rate cuts” and hopes the benchmark rate will be reduced to 1% or lower. If a new candidate is confirmed, it could have medium- to long-term impacts on Bitcoin and the overall crypto market.
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