According to an analysis report shared by XWIN Research Japan, if the Fed decides not to cut interest rates at the highly anticipated meeting next month, Bitcoin may remain trapped in a narrow trading range until the end of December.
The December Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is expected to be one of the most unpredictable meetings in recent years. Due to the U.S. government shutdown forcing the Bureau of Labor Statistics to cancel the October employment report and delay the release of data for October and November, policymakers will attend this meeting with unclear information.
Previously, Fed officials had expectations for interest rate cuts that were once well above 70%, but now they have fallen to a range of 40% to 50%. The minutes from the Fed meeting show that there are serious divisions within the committee. Pausing interest rate cuts would indicate that the Fed is taking a cautious approach to easing monetary policy, given that the inflation rate hovers around 3% and key labor market indicators are still lacking.
Historically, a tightening monetary environment depletes the liquidity of risk assets, a pattern that emerged earlier this month when a drop in interest rate expectations triggered significant declines in the stock market and cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin reacted immediately.
As the possibility of interest rate cuts diminishes, the price of Bitcoin has fallen below $90,000, erasing weeks of gains. Analysts indicate that if the Fed remains cautious in December, a similar trend may occur again, with leveraged positions becoming more vulnerable in a liquidity-scarce environment.
However, beneath the surface, the momentum for a rebound still exists. According to the chart shared by XWIN, the exchange's stablecoin reserves have climbed to a historic high of 72.2 billion USD. Every major upward movement in 2025 began with a similar accumulation of liquidity, as the market awaits a green light from the macroeconomy. If interest rate cuts do not materialize, XWIN expects the Bitcoin price to consolidate between 60,000 and 80,000 USD by the end of the year.
Downside pressure comes from weak risk appetite, while upside potential remains limited until the Fed's policy becomes clearer. The key question is whether stablecoin reserves will continue to remain idle or start to shift towards Bitcoin once the policy risks in December subside. (Cryptonews)
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