Polymarket Market Report: Among over 20k markets, the top 10 most volatile markets, cryptocurrency events account for 40%

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Odaily Planet Daily News reports that the third-party prediction market data platform Polysights posted on X platform stating that they analyzed over 20k Polymarket markets in the past 6 months and provided volatility rankings. The main findings are as follows:

  • Four out of the top ten markets are related to cryptocurrencies, characterized by highly asymmetric information, with few people able to predict accurately.

  • There is anxiety about approaching deadlines, and questions involving “Will X happen before [date]” are more likely to cause volatility than “Who will win.”

  • Market outcomes tend to favor “Yes” — in markets over 1 million USD, the probability of a “Yes” result is 50%, while overall it is only 27%; when markets experience extreme volatility, the final outcome is often “Yes.”

  • Medium-sized markets (between 1 million and 7 million USD) are in a chaotic zone; markets over 10 million USD see more stable price movements due to large capital inflows.

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