Iran and the U.S. are stuck in a deadlock of "no war, no peace," with both sides believing they hold the advantage.

BlockBeats News, on April 26th, after the US-Iran peace negotiation plan was temporarily shelved, Iran and the United States fell into an awkward deadlock of “No War, No Peace.” Both sides believe they can endure longer under economic and military pressure: Iranian officials are confident they can withstand the economic pain of war better than the Trump administration, while Trump believes the US can weaken Iran by blocking the Strait of Hormuz and other means. Although a ceasefire has been maintained recently, the lack of a permanent agreement has left the situation in a state of strategic limbo.

Former Iranian government officials and conservative media compare the current situation to the continuation of the Iran-Iraq War on June 12 last year—war has ended but without lasting guarantees. While both sides have retreated from the high costs of full-scale war, they still rely on force and pressure tactics, which may be more dangerous than short-term conflict. The slow progress of ceasefire restart efforts mediated by Pakistan, along with serious threats to the global economy, especially oil supplies, have created long-term uncertainties for all parties and Middle Eastern stability.

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of “US and Iran reaching a permanent peace agreement” before April 30 is only 2%, before May 31 is 32%, and before June 30 is 48%.