I wonder if the project is really doing things seriously. The first thing I don’t look at isn’t the candlestick chart—it’s how they spend their treasury. To put it plainly, the most honest way to see where the money is flowing is this: is there a rhythm to their fixed monthly expenses? Do development, audits, and operations actually line up with the public milestones—or does it suddenly add another line item of “market expenses” at every critical point, and then nothing gets delivered. In fact, what I fear most is that kind of accounting: a wallet full of funds, transferring back and forth like shuffling a deck of cards, until the only thing left is the phrase “community building.”

Recently, they’ve been talking again about adding taxes in certain regions and tightening or loosening compliance. Either way, it clearly affects expectations around deposits and withdrawals. If the project is still focused on smashing short-term traffic, the cash flow will be even tighter. My approach is a bit blunt: keep an eye on the cadence of expenses, whether any individual transaction amount is abnormal, and the time gap between milestone fulfillment. Take your time and observe slowly—don’t rush to believe the stories.