4.17 Big Cake Auntie’s Morning Thoughts (Long-term Perspective)

Last night’s price action indeed left most people stunned. The US stock market opened with weakened sentiment, which quickly dragged Big Cake down to the 73100 area, where it hit strong support. Then, after the US stock market closed, it rapidly rebounded to 75500. The up-and-down “sweep the range” pace was extremely fast—an obvious liquidity-harvesting move where neither bulls nor bears managed to get a bargain.

From a macro perspective, the US stock market has continued to strengthen and has been setting new stage highs, providing some support for risk assets. As a result, Big Cake has remained stuck in high-level consolidation. But you should note that this linkage is more about sentiment resonance rather than a fundamental reversal. The current market is still highly dependent on news-driven momentum; once the external environment starts to repeat or flip, volatility will be amplified quickly.

As for the view on the bigger trend, Xiao Zhuge remains relatively cautious. At present, there are no clear signals of a trend reversal; the bear-market cycle structure has not yet been effectively broken; the 5.9w area is very likely not the final bottom of this round of correction.

For this rebound, I’m more inclined to interpret it as a staged bullish sentiment window deliberately created by the main players. When the market gradually forms a consensus of “bulls returning quickly,” it is often also when risk starts to build up again. Once bullish overcrowding and leverage rise, the odds are high that it will be followed by another quick sell-off to reshuffle the board.

Personal Suggestions
Big Cake: 76000-77000 to set up long-term accumulation, target the 7w level downward; if it breaks, look at 66000!
Auntie: 2450-2500 to set up long-term accumulation, target 2180 downward; if it breaks, look at 1980!
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