Yesterday's crypto market exhibited a typical tug-of-war between bulls and bears, with Bitcoin and Ethereum surging higher before facing strong selling pressure, then quickly recovering lost ground.

Regarding Bitcoin, overnight optimism from continued expectations of US-Iran negotiations pushed the price to nearly $75,400, but bullish momentum was clearly lacking, and selling pressure at high levels began to emerge. Around 10 PM Beijing time, the market suddenly reversed sharply, with Bitcoin rapidly falling below the key round number of $74,000, briefly dropping to around $73,300. Afterwards, buying gradually returned, and the price recovered to close near $74,800. The entire day showed a "rise then fall, bottoming then rebounding" V-shaped pattern, with increased divergence between bulls and bears.

Ethereum's movement was highly correlated with Bitcoin, initially rising overnight to around $2,385, testing the nine-month downtrend resistance. However, due to insufficient bullish strength, the price quickly retreated from the high, temporarily losing the psychological support at $2,300. Fortunately, after a spike in the evening, it rebounded, regaining above $2,320. The Bollinger Bands are tightening, suggesting the short-term trend may continue to fluctuate within a range.

On-chain data shows that within one hour yesterday, about 11,000 Bitcoin were deposited into exchanges, reaching the highest level since December last year. Such large inflows often indicate short-term profit-taking or increased willingness to clear positions. In the past 24 hours, approximately 137k traders were liquidated across the network, with total liquidation amounting to $350 million, mainly affecting long positions.

Technically, BTC's daily chart has broken through the descending trendline, implying the overall downtrend may have reversed, with the least resistance pointing upward. However, the $76,000–$76,500 zone remains a historically strong resistance area—this was the top of the bear market rebound in January this year, which then reversed downward. The $76,800 level coincides closely with the "realized price" of on-chain traders, where many holders near break-even are most eager to sell.

On-chain metrics show that the exchange whale ratio (EMA14) has risen to its highest in ten months, indicating large funds are shifting assets into liquidity positions. Combined with derivatives open interest shrinking by nearly 70%, this suggests recent upward moves are mainly driven by short covering rather than new long positions. Yesterday's Bitcoin rebound from the bottom shows strong buying support in the $73,300–$73,700 range, but selling pressure around $75,000 remains heavy. The market is in a "resistance above, support below" oscillation pattern.
(Resistance above: $75,000–$75,800)
(Core resistance: $76,000–$76,800)
(Support below: $73,300–$73,700)
(Strong support: $71,000–$72,000)

Ethereum performed better than Bitcoin yesterday, currently testing the nine-month downtrend resistance at $2,386. If a daily close above this level is confirmed, it could open up larger rebound potential. Last week, Ethereum ETF saw a net inflow of $187 million, the highest since launch, signaling initial institutional rotation. The daily RSI (14) remains around 61.71, indicating bullish momentum persists but has not entered overbought territory.

However, ETH's MACD remains in a death cross expansion phase, with clear resistance at $2,400. If it cannot break through effectively in the short term, a pullback to the $2,250–$2,300 range is possible. The $2,150–$2,200 zone has seen multiple buy support over the past two weeks and is viewed as a short-term bottom.
(Resistance above: $2,385–$2,400)
(Support below: $2,250–$2,300)
(Key support: $2,150–$2,200)

Today’s key focus points

1. Evolving geopolitical sentiment: US-Iran negotiation developments remain the most direct "switch" for market sentiment; any new contact signals or escalation news could trigger sharp short-term volatility.
2. Follow-up progress on the CLARITY Act: Regulatory signals after hearings will continue to influence market expectations; monitoring the bill's progress is essential.
3. Technical direction: BTC needs to see if it can hold above $74,000 and challenge the resistance zone at $75,000–$76,000; ETH should watch for a confirmed breakout above $2,400.

Overall, the current market is in a stage of "macro narrative-driven sentiment versus technical resistance and on-chain selling pressure constraining upward movement." In the short term, it is likely to continue oscillating within the $73,000–$76,000 range. Trading strategies should focus on key support and resistance levels, waiting for clearer directional signals. Until policy uncertainties are resolved, the range-bound, structural market may persist.