The impact of the Strait of Hormuz blockade on the cryptocurrency market is not static; it is a dynamic process that transitions from "short-term emotional shocks" to "medium-term macro suppression," and may eventually evolve into "long-term structural divergence." Currently (April 12, 2026), under the deadlock in negotiations, the core period of negative effects is expected to last 1 to 3 months.

⏳ Analysis of Impact Phases
Short-term phase: Emotional shock (within 1-4 weeks)
The direct panic caused by the blockade will lead funds to withdraw from all risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, due to safe-haven demand. During this phase, market volatility will be unusually intense, characterized by a "news-driven market," where any slight change in negotiations can cause sharp price fluctuations within minutes. But this is a short-term emotional impact—quick to arrive and quick to fade.
Medium-term phase: Macro liquidity suppression (1-3 months) — core impact period
This is the true core and main duration of the blockade's negative effects. The logical chain is very straightforward:
Blockade → Sustained high oil prices → Rising global inflation expectations → The Federal Reserve is forced to delay rate cuts (or even consider rate hikes) → Tightening of the global financial environment, reduced liquidity → Outflows from high-risk, high-valuation cryptocurrency markets, with upward momentum hampered.
As long as the Strait remains blocked, the imported inflation pressure from high oil prices will persist, making it difficult for the Fed to initiate rate cuts. This macro liquidity suppression will run throughout the entire duration of the blockade and become a "tightening spell" that limits the upward potential of major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum. Based on the current deadlock, this suppression is expected to last at least through the second quarter.
Long-term dimension: Structural value reconfiguration (more than 6 months)
It is worth noting that the blockade has also spawned a potential long-term positive narrative. Iran, to evade sanctions, has begun exploring the use of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin for settling some toll payments. This provides a real-world use case for cryptocurrencies as "sanction-resistant cross-border payment tools." If this mode becomes standardized, it could form an independent value support outside traditional capital markets. However, this impact is structural and long-term, and will not offset the medium-term macro downside.
🔍 When will the impact end? Key observation points
The negative impact of the blockade on the market will end if at least one of the following two conditions is met:
Geopolitical condition: The US and Iran reach an agreement, and the Strait of Hormuz is substantially reopened. This is the most direct signal. Once the blockade is lifted, oil prices will fall accordingly, global inflation concerns will ease, and the Fed will have room to cut rates, immediately relieving macro pressure on the crypto market.
Macroeconomic condition: US economic data (especially CPI) shows that high oil prices have not caused stubborn "second-round inflation." Even if the blockade continues, if subsequent data indicates inflation remains controlled, the Fed’s rate cut path will remain unaffected, and markets will gradually "adapt" to high oil prices, with liquidity conditions in the crypto market improving.
Core conclusion: For investors, the most critical period to watch and be cautious of is the 1-3 months of macro liquidity suppression. During this time, the market may maintain high volatility and a low-trend oscillation pattern. Investment strategies should reduce leverage, stay patient, and closely monitor the emergence of the two "unblocking" signals above. #Gate广场四月发帖挑战