The expectation of military escalation offsets the positive outlook on troop withdrawal, and Trump's speech triggers a market turmoil.

ME News message. On April 2 (UTC+8), Trump delivered a rare prime-time national TV address from the White House. He tried to reassure Americans whose financial markets have been roiled by the war and whose political approval ratings have taken a hit, claiming that the war against Iran is “very close” to being over. However, as Trump hinted that military action could escalate in the short term, international spot prices for gold and silver kept plunging, while both U.S. and Brent crude oil continued to climb. As of the time of writing, spot gold was down more than 100 USD intraday, spot silver fell by more than 3%, and both U.S. and Brent crude oil were up more than 5%.

This speech highlights the immense pressure Trump is facing: to make the purpose of the war clear to the public, and to find an “exit route/channel” for a conflict that has now entered its fifth week and is becoming increasingly difficult to manage. Notably, in some respects, this address is more like a mobilization at the beginning of the war than a summary one month after it started. Currently, the Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for one-fifth of global maritime oil transport, has basically been under blockade since the outbreak of hostilities, becoming a major economic pain point. Although Trump still insists that energy shocks will ease after the war, the government has not yet clarified how it plans to persuade Iran to resume passage through the strait.

(Jin10) (Source: ODAILY)