Huatai Futures: Doubts about the recovery rate of Iran's methanol plant, port inventories continue to decline

Regarding ports, Iran’s ZPC 1.65 million tons/year facility and the Bushehr 1.65 million tons/year facility in Iran have resumed operation, but given the ongoing high intensity of the conflict and political instability, the actual rate of supply recovery remains uncertain. Port inventories continue to decline, continuing the trend of port inventory reduction expectations. Previously, the market anticipated that imports arriving at ports would further decrease to historical lows between March and April, and the ongoing port inventory reduction cycle has now gradually confirmed the turning point from high inventory levels into inventory drawdown. As for port demand, MTO maintenance is still ongoing, and attention will be on the potential resumption of Shenghong’s MTO in April. Mainland factory inventories also continue to decline from high levels, with coal-head methanol operating at only slightly lower levels from the high, and spring maintenance volumes remaining limited. Traditional downstream operations continue seasonal recovery, with formaldehyde resuming seasonal operation, MTBE continuing to rise, and acetic acid operating at relatively low levels with fluctuations. (Huatai Futures)