7 Days of 6 Limit-Ups! Weight Loss Probiotic Capsules Boost Minohua, Is This a Conceptual Hype or Value Realization?

Seven trading days with six limit-ups, a 70.29% increase over the period, and a market capitalization once approaching one billion yuan, the raw material pharmaceutical company MinoPharm (603538.SH) staged a thrilling surge at the end of March.

However, on the evening of March 30, an announcement of abnormal fluctuations suddenly cooled market enthusiasm. MinoPharm stated directly in the announcement that the company’s latest rolling price-to-earnings ratio is 86.82 times, which has seriously deviated from the Shanghai Composite Index and the pharmaceutical manufacturing industry index at the same period, and the company’s stock price has risen sharply in the short term, posing risks of overheated market sentiment and irrational speculation, with obvious bubbles and the potential for rapid decline at any time.

On March 31, MinoPharm once fell more than 9% during trading, ultimately closing down 5.10% at 40.90 yuan, with a nearly 40% turnover rate, showing clear signs of high-volume trading at the top.

Founded in 2004, MinoPharm initially started as a contract manufacturer of raw materials. After its listing on the Shanghai Stock Exchange Main Board in April 2017, the company gradually expanded into downstream formulation business, forming three main segments: raw materials, formulations, and CDMO. The formulation segment has already become the core growth engine.

Performance data disclosed by MinoPharm shows that by the third quarter of 2025, the company’s formulation business revenue reached 474 million yuan, increasing its proportion of total revenue from less than 30% in 2024 to 42%. In 2025, MinoPharm expects to achieve a net profit attributable to the parent of 100 million to 123 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 49.69% to 84.11%.

However, the direct catalyst for this round of stock price surge may be related to the company’s R&D products JH389 and its transition into the small nucleic acid drug track. According to the investor relations activity record disclosed by MinoPharm on March 23, JH389 is positioned as a non-drug GLP-1 product, planned to be marketed as a dietary supplement. Currently, the safety trials jointly promoted with Italian partners are in the final stages, and after the completion of a comprehensive safety report, registration work in Europe and the US will commence.

Domestic human trial data disclosed by MinoPharm shows that 28 subjects took two probiotic capsules once daily for 8 weeks, resulting in significant weight loss, with an average reduction of 2.5 kg and fat loss of 2.2 kg, with no adverse reactions related to the product.

Source: TuChong.com

MinoPharm pointed out that drugs need to demonstrate efficacy, but choosing a non-drug approach allows JH389 to cover a broader population. This “health-anxious population” is huge worldwide, with strong willingness to pay. Additionally, the non-drug route provides greater pricing flexibility and channel agility, and can be combined with other ingredients/products to form different product portfolios, enabling faster access to target consumers. It is also expected that overseas pricing for JH389 will reference GLP-1 drug prices.

Besides attempting to penetrate the trillion-yuan weight-loss health market with JH389, MinoPharm is also positioning small nucleic acid drugs as the starting point for its innovation-driven transformation. The company claims that industry judgment suggests small nucleic acid drugs will drive the third wave of pharmaceutical industry development and will become standard treatments for chronic diseases, disrupting the industry ecosystem.

However, Caijing notes that MinoPharm’s small nucleic acid drug project is still in early R&D stages and is unlikely to contribute to performance in the short term.

In response to the stock price surge, MinoPharm issued a risk warning announcement on March 27. The announcement clearly states that JH389 is in the safety trial phase in Europe, with multiple uncertainties such as approval failure, the need for additional studies, and less-than-expected trial results. Even if approved for listing in the future, it will face intense market competition, and whether it can achieve large-scale sales and generate stable revenue and profit remains highly uncertain.

Nevertheless, this announcement did not dampen market enthusiasm. On March 30, MinoPharm hit the limit-up again. That evening, the company issued another risk warning, indicating that JH389 is a probiotic product, not a drug, and as a dietary supplement, it has many limitations. Moreover, the small sample size of 28 subjects in the trial means that the conclusions’ generalizability needs further validation in larger populations, and the certainty of the results is still insufficient.

On March 31, regarding whether there are plans for larger-scale, longer-term human trials, the timeline for European EFSA and US GRAS certifications, and the company’s future R&D investment scale over the next 3–5 years, Caijing sent interview questions to MinoPharm but had not received a reply as of press time.

As of the close on March 31, MinoPharm’s P/E ratio was 90.63, while the average P/E ratio for the pharmaceutical manufacturing industry was less than 30. This indicates that investors have already priced in optimistic expectations for JH389’s successful listing, rapid volume increase, and smooth progress of small nucleic acid drug R&D. The statement in the announcement that “bubbles are obvious, and there is a risk of rapid decline at any time” is not just politeness.

From a raw material drug company to an innovative pharmaceutical enterprise, MinoPharm’s transformation not only requires time for accumulation but also substantial progress in R&D and commercialization. Its future stock performance will remain closely tied to the advancement of its core projects.