17%: A Future Invitation for "Decarbonization and Green Growth"

A reporter from People’s Daily, Peng Xunwen

Li Hua is framed by a corner of the photovoltaic base of the Zhongtang Photovoltaic Power Station in Qianjiang District, Chongqing. Yang Min/People’s Vision

A number mentioned in both the Government Work Report and the “Fifteenth Five-Year Plan” (2026–2030) Outline once again sends a clear message to the world about China’s steadfast resolve for green development—during the “Fifteenth Five-Year Plan” period, carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP will be reduced by 17%.

To achieve this goal, the Government Work Report and the “Fifteenth Five-Year Plan” Outline make many deployments in the fields of green and low-carbon development, sketching a new picture of China accelerating a comprehensive shift to green development. This will not only empower high-quality economic and social development, but also bring new growth drivers and cooperation opportunities to countries around the world, especially developing countries.

Achieve the 2030 peak carbon target in an orderly manner

The “Fifteenth Five-Year Plan” Outline, when describing the goals to be achieved for economic and social development during the “Fifteenth Five-Year Plan” period, proposes that green production and lifestyles will basically take shape; the peak carbon target will be achieved on schedule; carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP will be reduced by 17%; and a new type of energy system featuring clean, low-carbon, safe, and high-efficiency development will be initially established.

When setting out this year’s main expected development goals, the Government Work Report proposes that carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP will be reduced by about 3.8%, and points out that setting this target has taken into comprehensive consideration various needs, such as economic and social development, the transition to green and low-carbon development, and national energy security. It is conducive to achieving the peak carbon target before 2030 in an orderly manner.

[Commentary]

Dong Zhanfeng, head of the Policy Research Institute under the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, and a researcher: In the carbon-reduction targets of the “Fifteenth Five-Year Plan,” the relevant indicators are both connected to one another and each has its own focus, demonstrating the scientific rigor and firm resolve of our country’s green transition.

As the first year of the “Fifteenth Five-Year Plan,” the annual carbon-reduction pace of 3.8% reflects the guidance of “tackling hard tasks from the outset.” Compared with the roughly 3.6% average reduction during the “Fourteenth Five-Year Plan,” it is slightly higher. It both strengthens the constraints on emissions reduction and, at the same time, takes into account the target for China’s GDP growth rate in 2026, leaving a buffer space for industrial transformation and energy security. The 17% cumulative reduction over five years is proposed based on the country’s nationally determined contribution targets. This goal connects to earlier results in carbon emissions reduction: it not only ensures the peak carbon target is reached as scheduled, but also leaves reasonable room for upgrading traditional industries and for transforming the energy structure.

Compared with the “Fourteenth Five-Year Plan,” the “Fifteenth Five-Year Plan” puts a stronger emphasis on three priorities in implementing the concept of green development: first, it emphasizes the rigidity of targets more—carbon emissions dual control is incorporated into constraint-based performance evaluation, replacing the more energy-consumption dual control–centered management approach of the “Fourteenth Five-Year Plan”; second, it emphasizes systemic coordination more—promoting deep integration of carbon reduction with pollution reduction, greening, and growth. It is not only about pursuing emissions reduction in isolation, but about overall coordination between economic development and energy security. Third, it emphasizes international alignment more—actively responding to new developments in international carbon rules. Through carbon footprint management, expanding carbon markets, and related measures, it will enhance the green competitiveness of China’s industries and demonstrate the responsibility of a major responsible country.

Yang Quan hong, a member of the National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference and a distinguished professor at Tianjin University: The “Fifteenth Five-Year Plan” sets a target of reducing carbon emissions by 17%. On the one hand, this is arranged according to the schedule needed to achieve the peak carbon target before 2030 in an orderly manner. On the other hand, it also shows that the earlier progress has generally gone smoothly—many energy-saving and carbon-reducing measures have already taken effect, laying the groundwork for further advancement afterward. We should also see a pattern: the potential for emissions reduction gradually decreases while the difficulty gradually increases. In the earlier stage, by improving energy efficiency and phasing out backward production capacity, China rapidly achieved some of its emissions-reduction goals. The further one goes into the later stage, the more it relies on energy-structure adjustment and technological innovation, making the implementation process more complex. Therefore, this year’s annual target of reducing carbon emissions by around 3.8% is a positive and prudent arrangement of the pace.

During the “Fifteenth Five-Year Plan” period, green development puts even more emphasis on a “low-carbon” orientation. It is not just about emphasizing energy conservation and consumption reduction; instead, guided by achieving peak carbon and carbon neutrality, it will jointly advance carbon reduction, pollution reduction, greening, and growth, with a stronger emphasis on a systematic shift in the way development is carried out.

A full shift from energy-consumption dual control to carbon-emissions dual control

In 2024, the General Office of the State Council issued the “Work Plan to Accelerate the Building of a Carbon Emissions Dual-Control System,” which proposes establishing a new mechanism for fully transitioning from energy-consumption dual control to carbon-emissions dual control, and accelerating the building of a system of regulations for controlling both the total volume and intensity of carbon emissions. This is the first year in which China has fully shifted from energy-consumption dual control to carbon-emissions dual control. The Government Work Report proposes implementing regulations for controlling both the total volume and intensity of carbon emissions; improving carbon-emissions statistical accounting and carbon footprint management systems; and further expanding the coverage of the carbon emissions rights trading market.

The first batch of “Shagewang” (desert, Gobi, and barren land) new-energy base projects has basically been completed and put into operation. The installed capacity scale of new-type energy storage exceeds 130 million kilowatts, and the share of non-fossil energy consumption reaches 21.7%… When looking back at the work in 2025, the Government Work Report mentioned some figures that demonstrate the solid progress of China’s energy transition. These achievements provide a firm foundation for accelerating the building of a new type of energy system.

[Commentary]

Yang Quan hong: An important reason for the shift from energy-consumption dual control to carbon-emissions dual control is that, when advancing green transition, what ultimately needs to be addressed is the “emissions problem.” For example, the significance of using coal-fired power and using green power for electricity differs in terms of carbon emissions. With the shift to dual control over the total volume and intensity of carbon emissions, the core of management is essentially moving from “how much energy was used” to “how much carbon was emitted.” The significance of this shift lies in providing more precise guidance, making it more conducive to encouraging the development of renewable energy, and focusing on controlling fossil energy consumption.

This institutional shift helps form an incentive-and-constraint mechanism for reducing pollution and carbon emissions, and it clearly sets a direction that encourages renewable energy while focusing on controlling fossil energy. Therefore, in the next stage, business competition will increasingly involve not only costs and production capacity, but also carbon-management capability, technology-upgrading capability, and green certification capability.

Dong Zhanfeng: Shifting from energy-consumption dual control to carbon-emissions dual control reflects an important transition in China’s green development model. Energy-consumption dual control focuses on the total amount and intensity of energy consumption. As the “dual carbon” goals are advanced, direct regulation of carbon emissions becomes inevitable. This can both focus on fossil energy consumption—an important source of carbon emissions—and guide the whole society to shift from “energy saving” to “carbon reduction.” This means localities will pay more attention to reducing fossil energy consumption, while encouraging an increase in the use of new energy.

This transition is of major and far-reaching significance. First, it improves the precision of emissions reduction, enabling “energy decisions based on carbon,” and promotes carbon-target linkage across the whole chain—energy structure, industrial layout, and project investment. Second, it strengthens institutional constraints and guidance by incorporating carbon-emissions dual control into constraint-based performance evaluation, compelling local governments and enterprises to proactively transform and cultivating new drivers for green development. Third, it improves the governance system, promoting coordinated advancement in carbon-emissions statistical accounting, carbon footprint management, and carbon market construction to build a whole-chain green governance mechanism. Fourth, it aligns with international rules, providing support for China’s industries to respond to international carbon barriers, while also showing China’s resolve to address global climate change and enhancing our country’s voice and influence in the global green transition.

Help countries achieve green development

The Government Work Report proposes vigorously developing a green and low-carbon economy. It calls for improving policies that promote green and low-carbon development, implementing key-industry action plans to improve quality, reduce costs, and cut carbon emissions, and deeply advancing the construction of zero-carbon parks and factories. It will establish a national low-carbon transition fund to cultivate new growth areas such as hydrogen energy and green fuels. It will effectively and efficiently control high-energy-consumption and high-emissions projects, accelerate the phaseout of backward production capacity, and support innovative applications of green low-carbon technology and equipment.

Implement a decade-long action to multiply non-fossil energy supply; build clean energy bases such as the integration of wind and photovoltaic power with hydro-wind-photovoltaic systems in the “Three North” regions, integrated wind power and solar power in the southwest water-wind-photovoltaic model, coastal nuclear power, offshore wind power, and more; plan and develop green ammonia and green methanol; actively promote solar thermal power generation; accelerate the construction of smart power grids; and greatly develop new-type energy storage… Turning the “Fifteenth Five-Year Plan” Outline page by page, one deployment after another releases a great many new signals for industries.

[Commentary]

Dong Zhanfeng: These deployments release many new signals, demonstrating China’s firm resolve to move green transition from “breakthroughs in isolated areas” to “system-wide upgrading.”

First, non-fossil energy will enter a new stage of large-scale development and high-quality growth. The decade-long action to multiply non-fossil energy supply and the development of four major clean energy bases will drive continued expansion in wind power, solar power, nuclear power, and hydropower, while also enabling the coordinated development of upstream and downstream industrial chains such as equipment manufacturing and engineering construction.

Second, building a new type of power system will become an important lever. With coordinated deployment of smart power grids and new-type energy storage, it will address the problems of renewables being “intermittent and volatile,” provide assurance for high-percentage grid connection of renewables, and also generate new growth points for industries such as energy storage technology and smart grid equipment.

Third, low-carbon technology innovation will become a key focus of industrial competition. By improving the layout for new-type low-carbon technologies such as hydrogen energy, green hydrogen-ammonia and green hydrogen-methanol, and solar thermal power generation, and targeting deep decarbonization needs in high-energy-consumption industries, it will promote the cultivation of new-quality productive forces industrial chains.

Fourth, policy and market coordination will work together to empower green transition. By setting up a national low-carbon transition fund, it will provide financial support for green industries, reduce the costs of enterprise transition, and meanwhile guide social capital to cluster in green sectors. By cultivating new growth points such as green fuels, it not only can improve the green energy system, but also is expected to reshape the future pattern of energy trade and enable China to take the initiative in global competition in low-carbon industries, supporting the development of new-quality productive forces.

Yang Quan hong: The world significance of China’s push to transition its energy system lies in the fact that it is being advanced within an economy of extraordinary scale. Therefore, what it brings is not only carbon reductions within China itself, but will directly affect the global cost, supply, and application speed of green technologies. China has already built the world’s largest and fastest-growing renewable energy system, and through the export of wind power and solar power products, it has made an important contribution to carbon reductions in other countries. This kind of large-scale practice will help many green technologies mature faster and reduce costs faster, and it will also make it easier for more developing countries to obtain affordable and replicable green solutions.

In terms of cooperation opportunities, there will be more room ahead. It is expected to move from exporting single equipment to cooperating across the entire value chain. This includes cooperation in basic infrastructure such as wind power, solar power, energy storage, and smart power grids, as well as cooperation in new energy such as green fuels. There will be cooperation not only in project construction and equipment manufacturing, but also in institutional and capability-based cooperation such as green certificates (green credits) and carbon footprints. In other words, in the future China will provide not only products, but also technologies, standards, scenarios, and system solutions—helping countries around the world, especially developing countries, achieve green development.