Goldman Sachs Raises Oil Price Forecast, Says Hormuz Strait Shipping Disruption Is Largest Oil Supply Shock in History

MaticHoleFiller · 2026-03-24T21:08:48+00:00

Goldman Sachs raises its 2026 oil price forecast, upgrading Brent crude expectations from $77 to $85 per barrel, and warns that shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz could trigger the largest supply shock in history, potentially resulting in daily crude oil losses of up to 17 million barrels.

MaticHoleFiller

2026-03-24 21:08:48

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Goldman Sachs raises its oil price forecast for 2026, stating that the disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz poses the largest supply shock in history to the global crude oil market.

Analysts, including Daan Struyven, stated in the report that they have increased their average Brent crude oil price forecast for 2026 from $77 per barrel to $85, and their full-year WTI crude oil price forecast from $72 per barrel to $79.

In a report dated March 22, analysts said that these adjustments are partly based on the assumption that shipping volume through the Strait of Hormuz will be only 5% of normal levels for six weeks, then gradually recover over about a month.

Four weeks into the Iran conflict, there are still no signs of easing. On Saturday night, Trump issued an ultimatum to Tehran, demanding Iran fully open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours or face attacks on its power facilities. Iran responded strongly, warning that if power plants are attacked, it will completely block the Strait of Hormuz and target all energy, information technology, and seawater desalination infrastructure in the Middle East that belongs to Israel and the United States.

Goldman Sachs analysts wrote, “This historic supply shock could lead decision-makers and markets to recognize the high concentration of production and idle capacity in the Middle East, as well as the structural risks posed by the vulnerability of energy infrastructure.”

They added that although this shock is tightening oil supplies in Asia, commercial crude oil inventories in the US and OECD countries are still rising, as global oil supply had already exceeded demand before the outbreak of war.

Goldman Sachs analysts stated that assuming shipping through the Strait of Hormuz takes four weeks to fully restart and gradually return to normal, Middle Eastern oil production losses could increase from the current 11 million barrels per day to a peak of 17 million barrels per day, with total losses slightly exceeding 800 million barrels.

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