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[Airdrop] In a universally rising market, it's even more important to focus on rhythm shifts!
The market finally experienced a broad rally, thanks to various external news factors [Taoguba].
However, today’s rebound looks like a bottoming-out rally, yet the trading volume remains only around 200 billion yuan.
Insufficient volume indicates that the recent financing positions haven’t been truly cleared out — this isn’t the real bottom yet!
Of course, perhaps 3750 points is about right in the end, with little room for further decline. But we need to grind it out until those high-level financing positions are truly shaken out.
Based on today’s market recovery expectations, I unfollowed Huadian Liaoning yesterday.
The reason is that today’s opening shows a broad rally, but Huadian Liaoning’s recent performance has been more of a contrarian, anti-index grouping, which tends to reverse today.
Plus, the main control operations today don’t look very good.
So, I unfollowed near the limit-up early in the morning, and after the board broke down and sold off, I unfollowed completely.
Let me briefly explain the logic behind trading Huadian Liaoning and my thoughts at the time.
First, the overall environment is actually unstable and not very good.
Many logically strong stocks couldn’t break out, and some even experienced continuous sharp declines.
Under this premise, over the weekend, there was talk of nuclear power plants being blown up within 48 hours.
A collective market suppression was expected.
In such a situation, there’s only one strategy — grouping!
We’ve traded quite a few stocks with this grouping strategy, so we have some experience dealing with market groupings.
But this round of dispersed groupings is quite rare in history (related to the months-long inability to break out of the trend).
At this point, Huadian Liaoning caught our attention.
Even with a full market collapse on Friday, Huadian Liaoning managed to rebound with volume, standing out among thousands of green stocks!
And the volume was very impressive — the daily candles over the past few days had similar trading volumes, and the rebound on Friday, despite the weak board, was done with double the volume.
As long as on Monday it opens high and doesn’t get pressed straight down at the open, it’s basically holding the Friday positions.
This is a good entry point to watch.
Because we’re doing a grouping strategy, the worse the external index and sentiment, the more stable the rebound expectations — so chasing high in the middle of the move is the right approach, not trying to buy on the dip!
Since many people are involved in this kind of board trading, a slight delay in execution can prevent entry.
Similarly, due to news factors, today’s market opened collectively higher.
The closing of the bidding saw thousands of stocks in the red, indicating market optimism about recovery.
We’re trading Huadian Liaoning as a contrarian grouping.
If the market begins to recover and volume surges outward, and various logical sectors start to rally, can Huadian still maintain that rare red spot among green?
Today’s opening was a continuous decline, ending with a small red candle.
Of course, the control of the market was still manageable — despite the decline, it didn’t break below green, which is relatively good.
It’s not too complicated to see the pattern.
The real challenge is in the fight over the board when it breaks.
Most people might not see how much game theory is involved here.
Actually, Huadian Liaoning changed its main control today.
First, it nearly hit the limit-up with just a penny’s difference, then repeatedly opened and closed on the board.
Before the first break, I warned that it might break, because the volume wasn’t enough! The volume indicator responded, so it added volume.
But after that, a further break exceeded my expectations.
Without additional profit cushions and with a not-so-great March, I chose to cash out.
Another reason is that there are too many teachers talking about Huadian Liaoning on the stock forums!
Some are hyping it as a leader stock. I understand that because the market was weak earlier, there wasn’t much else to talk about, so they focused on this.
But too many people hyping it is a kind of original sin.
If retail investors are earning all the money…
Of course, that doesn’t mean Huadian is bad.
In fact, it’s a surprisingly strong stock!
Normally, I don’t trade stocks that hit the first limit-up with a straight line. The last time I traded such stocks was Jierong Technology.
Also, I haven’t touched consecutive breakout stocks for a long time.
My interest in Huadian is because it has some special features.
For example, today, it’s rebellious — when the index is against the trend, Huadian can group, and when the index is in line, Huadian can also move with the sector!
Both sides are connected to Huadian.
If it were a typical breakout trend, Huadian could potentially match the record of 15 consecutive limit-ups set by Shunkong.
But now, with too many unpredictable factors, I can only watch and wish it well.
I hope Huadian can lead the market sentiment rhythm. If it breaks through this abnormal movement, the overall market sentiment will improve, and a return to continuous breakout trends would be beneficial for everyone.
But I also want everyone to be aware of the risks while celebrating the gains.
Especially at this point — after enduring so much difficulty, we can’t fall at this stage!
This rebound still looks like a three-day recovery.
It’s basically the same as the previous rebound I mentioned on Monday, just delayed by a day due to weekend news.
Next week might still see some recovery.
But on Friday, a large amount of capital driven by external fears will likely sell off.
So, if your stocks aren’t in very strong core sectors, it’s probably time to unfollow them Thursday afternoon.
Let’s proceed cautiously afterward.
Recently, the “Momentary Light” interview has become popular again.
Take some time to reflect: what are you really pursuing?
Finally, a reminder: normally, this position is the best time to connect the cycle with previous periods.
But after multiple interruptions, even if Jinkai New Energy’s stock rises today, the probability of completing a full cycle of this position is decreasing.
So in the next couple of days, while paying attention to the electric power sector, also look out for other unexpected opportunities that could become new main lines.