National Bureau of Statistics Interpretation: Manufacturing PMI in February Slightly Declined, Non-Manufacturing PMI Slightly Rebounded

Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index Slightly Declines in February; Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index Slightly Rises

—Interpretation by Hou Lihui, Chief Statistician of the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, on China’s February 2026 Purchasing Managers’ Index

On March 4, 2026, the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing released China’s Purchasing Managers’ Index. Hou Lihui, Chief Statistician of the Service Industry Survey Center, provided an analysis.

In February, influenced by factors such as the Spring Festival holiday, the Manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month; the Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index was 49.5%, up 0.1 percentage points; and the Composite PMI Output Index was 49.5%, down 0.3 percentage points.

1. Manufacturing PMI Slightly Declines

In February, the Manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, indicating a decline in economic activity compared to the previous month. Historically, PMI tends to fluctuate in the month of the Spring Festival, especially this year, when the holiday was extended and fell entirely in mid to late February, affecting production and operations, leading to an overall decrease in market activity in manufacturing.

(1) Both supply and demand have slowed. The Production Index and New Orders Index were 49.6% and 48.6%, respectively, down 1.0 and 0.6 percentage points from last month, indicating a slowdown in manufacturing output and market demand. Industry-wise, sectors such as agricultural and sideline food processing, and computer, communication, and electronic equipment maintained indices above the critical point, showing expansion; sectors like textiles, apparel, and automobiles remained below the critical point, indicating weaker market activity.

(2) Large enterprises continue to expand. The PMI for large enterprises was 51.5%, up 1.2 percentage points from last month, indicating continued expansion. Small and medium-sized enterprises were more affected by the holiday, with PMI at 47.5% and 44.8%, respectively, down 1.2 and 2.6 percentage points, showing a decline in activity.

(3) Growth momentum in high-tech manufacturing persists. The PMI for high-tech manufacturing was 51.5%, remaining in expansion territory and significantly higher than the overall manufacturing level, indicating good development trends in related industries. The PMI for consumer goods was 48.8%, up 0.5 percentage points from last month, showing a recovery; PMI for equipment manufacturing and high-energy-consuming industries were 49.8% and 47.8%, respectively, down slightly, indicating a slight slowdown.

(4) Business expectations remain optimistic. The Production and Business Activity Expectation Index was 53.2%, up 0.6 percentage points, reflecting increased confidence among manufacturing firms post-holiday. Industry-wise, sectors such as general equipment, railway, shipbuilding, aerospace, and others had expectations indices above 56%, indicating strong optimism about future industry development.

2. Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index Slightly Rises

In February, the Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index was 49.5%, up 0.1 percentage points from last month, indicating a slight improvement in overall non-manufacturing activity.

(1) Service sector activity rebounds. The Service Business Activity Index was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points. Driven by the holiday effect, sectors related to travel and consumption, such as accommodation, catering, cultural, and entertainment, saw business volumes grow rapidly, with indices above 60%. Retail and air transportation also rose above 52%. Meanwhile, sectors like capital market services and real estate remained low, with low market activity. The Business Activity Expectation Index for services was 55.8%, remaining in a high optimism zone, indicating continued positive outlook among service firms.

(2) Construction sector activity declines. Due to the holiday season, with workers returning home and some construction projects pausing, the Construction Business Activity Index fell to 48.2%, down 0.6 percentage points, indicating continued decline. However, the Business Activity Expectation Index for construction was 50.9%, up 1.1 points, returning above the critical point, showing renewed confidence in future industry development.

3. Overall PMI Output Index Declines

In February, the Composite PMI Output Index was 49.5%, down 0.3 percentage points from last month, indicating a slowdown in overall enterprise production and operations. The composite index components—Manufacturing Production Index and Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index—were 49.6% and 49.5%, respectively.