# Fidelity: Bitcoin's Classic Four-Year Cycle May Be Coming to an End

Investors, Fidelity Digital Assets recently released an interesting research report.

They believe that Bitcoin's classic "boom-bust" cyclical pattern may be becoming a thing of the past.

And the evidence is quite compelling.

At its peak in October 2025, Bitcoin's market cap reached approximately $2.5 trillion.
However, in January 2026, something unusual occurred—its annualized realized volatility hit a 17th historical low point.

This has never happened so early after reaching an all-time high before.

In other words:
Prices remain near peak levels, but market behavior is calmer than ever before.

What has changed?

The key lies in shifting demand structure.

Today, nearly 12% of Bitcoin's total supply is held by public companies and ETFs.
Moreover, most of these purchases occurred after 2023.

Consider these facts:

— 49 public companies each hold more than 1,000 Bitcoin
— The largest Bitcoin ETF reached $75 billion in assets under management in less than 2 years
— By comparison, it took the gold ETF GLD nearly 7 years to reach the same scale

This suggests that institutional capital is entering this market faster than any emerging asset class in history.

Now let's look at on-chain data.

During this cycle, the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio has remained at approximately 2x realized value.

By comparison:

2013 — approximately 6x
2017 — approximately 4x
2021 — approximately 4x

If this cycle's MVRV reaches at least 4x, that would imply:

— Market cap reaching approximately $4.5 trillion
— Bitcoin price around $225,000

But there's another interesting metric worth watching.

Fidelity introduced a new indicator: the profit volatility ratio.

It measures the ratio between market profit and its volatility.

And surprisingly:

Since late 2023, this indicator has remained stable above 0.015—the longest continuous stable period in Bitcoin history.

Even when prices dropped below $70,000 in February 2026, it didn't break this structure.

What could this mean?

Perhaps we're witnessing Bitcoin's transition from "speculative asset" phase to "macro asset" phase.

If that's the case, the market landscape could shift:

— No more 80% crashes
— No more extreme euphoric peaks
— More slow and steady growth instead

But there's one thing to remember here.

Market evolution is rarely linear.
Usually, markets first break most people's expectations before forming new structures.

Therefore, I'm inclined to view these findings as a possibility—a potential scenario for market direction—rather than a definitive prediction.

So, investors, what do you think?

Is Bitcoin still following the old four-year cycle pattern,
or are we gradually entering an entirely new market stage?

If you're interested, I could dive deeper into what this means for the next bear market and our investment strategies. Drop a like to let me know.