【AIA Major Report】AIA Announces $1.7 Billion Buyback Beating Expectations – See Latest Analyst Price Targets at a Glance

AIA Group (01299)
Recently announced full-year 2025 results, with a record high annual new business value of $5.52 billion. The final dividend increased by 10% year-on-year. The board approved a new share repurchase program of $1.7 billion. HSBC Global Research issued a report, stating that AIA’s newly announced $1.7 billion share buyback plan exceeded expectations. HSBC raised the target price from HKD 80 to HKD 85 to reflect the share repurchase and other factors. However, it is expected that the company’s growth will slow over the next five years, so the rating remains “Hold.”

HSBC’s report noted that AIA’s fourth-quarter new business value (VONB), calculated at fixed exchange rates, increased by 15% year-on-year, a slowdown from the 18% growth in the first nine months of last year, seemingly due to weakening momentum in Hong Kong and Mainland China. HSBC lowered its forecasts for 2026 and 2027 new business value by 2% to 3% to reflect last year’s underperformance; however, it raised its 2026 net profit forecast by 19%.

UBS lowers AIA target price by 2%

UBS research report states that the target price for AIA has been lowered from HKD 106 to HKD 104, maintaining a “Buy” rating.

UBS noted that AIA’s Hong Kong business growth remained strong in the first quarter of this year, mainly benefiting from local and Mainland Chinese visitors. The bank pointed out that the appreciation of the RMB has limited impact on Mainland visitors’ demand, as clients have structural and diversified wealth needs, and Hong Kong insurance products remain attractive.

UBS also mentioned that macroeconomic headwinds caused by the Iran conflict, such as weak stock markets, rising U.S. interest rates, and a stronger dollar, led to an 8% reduction in its 2026 after-tax net profit and a 3% cut in intrinsic value forecasts. The bank believes that AIA’s mid-term new business value can maintain double-digit growth, with a total return rate of 4%, so it maintains a “Buy” rating.

Bank of America raises AIA target price by 11%

Bank of America issued a research report, raising the target price for AIA from HKD 90 to HKD 100, reaffirming a “Buy” rating. The bank expects that AIA’s 2026 new business value will grow by 17% annually, driven mainly by growth in China and stable profit margins, as well as contributions from new business in Hong Kong and Mainland visitors. Due to the potential continuation of a high interest rate environment, it is anticipated that sales of savings products will be the main driver of new business value this year.

The bank also raised its profit forecasts for AIA for 2026-27 by 11%, mainly due to increased underwriting profits.

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