Interpreting the "15th Five-Year Plan" Outline | Exclusive Interview with Zhang Yuzhuo: Future Economic Growth Will See More Increments from Emerging Pillar Industries, Next-Generation Information Technology, New Materials, New Energy and Other Fields Are Expected to Become Emerging Pillar Industries First

On March 13, the “Outline of the 14th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development of the People’s Republic of China” (hereinafter referred to as the “Outline”) was publicly released.

In the area of “cultivating and strengthening emerging and future industries,” the Outline proposes to strengthen source technology supply, accelerate the construction of application scenarios and ecological systems, cultivate more pillar and leading industries, and build new advantages for industrial development. It also makes specific deployments in three aspects: developing and expanding emerging industries, forward-looking layout of future industries, and improving the ecological environment for industrial innovation and development.

What signals are released from shifting from “strategic emerging industries” to “emerging pillar industries”? Which industries are likely to become the first to grow into emerging pillar industries? How should we understand the “demonstration projects for future industry development”? What are the main considerations behind exploring new regulatory approaches such as “sandbox regulation” and “trigger-based regulation”?

Focusing on these questions, NBD (National Business Daily) interviewed Zhang Yuzhe, researcher at the Institute of Industrial Economics and Technological Economics, National Development and Reform Commission.

Most future economic growth will come from emerging pillar industries

NBD: The Outline proposes to accelerate the development of strategic emerging industries such as new-generation information technology, new energy, new materials, intelligent connected new energy vehicles, robotics, biomedicine, high-end equipment, aerospace, etc., and to build characteristic, complementary strategic emerging industry clusters based on local conditions, aiming to develop a number of high-growth, high-tech content, and wide-penetration emerging pillar industries. What signals are conveyed by the transition from “strategic emerging industries” to “emerging pillar industries”?

Zhang Yuzhe: First, “strategic” indicates their important status; “emerging” suggests they are still in a potential development stage and not fully developed yet; while “emerging pillar” means they need to play a greater role.

Therefore, from an industry development perspective, I believe that the value-added of traditional industries can still be improved in quality, but the room for quantity increase will become smaller, and development scale may face bottlenecks. In this context, future-oriented strategic emerging industries and future industries will gradually take on the “main role,” transforming into emerging pillar industries. Previously, discussions focused more on their “potential” and “technological strength”; in the future, the focus will shift to transforming potential into actual strength. The technology itself remains unchanged; what changes is the shift from “growth potential” to “actual scale.”

NBD: For “strategic emerging industries” to become “emerging pillar industries,” what proportion of the overall industry should they reach?

Zhang Yuzhe: Generally, reaching 5% of GDP can be considered as a pillar industry. But “emerging pillar” emphasizes the rapid growth stage within the industry development cycle, not full maturity. During this period, most of the incremental growth will come from these sectors. That is, the stock scale of traditional industries is large, making it difficult for incremental growth alone to drive the stock or change the structure. When incremental growth drives structural change in the stock, this growth needs to be very fast and play a larger role. However, becoming a pillar industry is a process that requires sustained effort; it cannot be achieved overnight.

NBD: Among these strategic emerging industries mentioned earlier, which are likely to become the first emerging pillar industries?

Zhang Yuzhe: I believe that new-generation information technology, new materials, new energy, and high-end equipment are more likely to become emerging pillar industries first. The first three cover broader areas and have wider penetration; high-end equipment, to some extent, reflects the intelligence and high-end transformation of traditional industries, including stock upgrades and renovations that can be converted into high-end equipment. In comparison, industries like automobiles, robotics, and pharmaceuticals are more product-specific, and aerospace requires a longer development cycle.

On “walking and observing while managing” new business forms

NBD: The Outline proposes establishing mechanisms for future industry investment growth and risk sharing, organizing demonstration projects for future industry development, and exploring multiple technological routes, typical application scenarios, feasible business models, and market regulation rules. How should we understand the “demonstration projects for future industry development”? What is the intention behind this?

Zhang Yuzhe: Future industries driven by technological innovation may become new engines and driving forces. From a practical perspective, demonstration projects are mostly organized by the government, representing future directions and trends, and can serve as leading examples for relevant industry sectors. However, the fundamental economic characteristics within future industries vary—market sizes differ, some are just starting, others are in rapid growth phases; technological complexity varies, and product and technology penetration rates are different. Therefore, differentiated practical guidance should be provided based on these characteristics, using engineering methods to promote resource allocation efficiency and effectiveness.

NBD: The Outline proposes establishing efficient and convenient access mechanisms suitable for new business forms, and exploring new regulatory approaches such as “sandbox regulation” and “trigger-based regulation.” What are the main considerations behind this?

Zhang Yuzhe: The unprecedented changes in the past century are reflected in the dual uncertainties faced by future industries—technological uncertainty and market uncertainty. In this context, we need to encourage innovation and development while preventing safety accidents.

How to balance innovation and safety? “Sandbox regulation” involves conducting experiments in specific areas or scenarios; “trigger-based regulation” follows a pre-, during-, and post-event logic, not a one-size-fits-all approach—once certain conditions are triggered during the process, regulation is intensified, and the same applies afterward. Both approaches aim to encourage innovation while avoiding expanding safety risks.

Take the recently popular OpenClaw (commonly known as “Lobster”) as an example. It is an innovative product supported by various regions, but it also has many safety risks. It is more suitable for trigger-based regulation. Many new things reveal risks only during use; we can pre-judge some risks in a general direction, but it’s difficult to predict all specific risks in advance. Therefore, pre-regulation may hinder development; more often, regulation is enhanced during the process—what we call “walking and watching while managing.”

NBD: During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, efforts will be made to cultivate and expand emerging industries and future industries, and localities will focus on these industries in their layouts. What should be paid attention to?

Zhang Yuzhe: First, avoid “grabbing everything at once”—just because a trend looks promising, rushing to follow blindly is unwise. Instead, adapt to local conditions and focus on key areas. From development direction, resource allocation, to working mechanisms, overall planning is necessary. For example, resource allocation—including human, financial, and material resources—should follow economic development laws, industry development patterns, and technological characteristics. Avoid reckless efforts just to boost economic growth; make better use of the government’s “visible hand.”

Second, competition among regions can help clarify trends and directions, but rushing into rash actions should be avoided. It’s important to have the spirit of “success does not have to be achieved by me, but success must include me.”

Attention should be paid to the negative impacts of artificial intelligence on employment, income distribution, and public services

NBD: The Outline proposes to fully implement the “AI+” action, strengthen the integration of artificial intelligence with technological innovation, industrial development, cultural construction, people’s livelihood security, and social governance, seize the commanding heights of AI industry applications, and empower various industries comprehensively. Does this mean AI will usher in significant development opportunities? What role will AI play during the 14th Five-Year Plan?

Zhang Yuzhe: The Outline mentions AI multiple times, aligning with technological development trends and economic laws. AI will be like the steam engine and electricity in the past—an important driving force of the new industrial revolution. As a general-purpose technology, its penetration and enabling effects are crucial, and its development will determine the breadth, depth, and intensity of future growth.

We must view the positive impact of technology on industries and the economy correctly, leveraging rapid technological progress and broad diffusion, while also preventing negative shocks that could cause structural impacts. Only then can we truly enhance people’s sense of gain.

NBD: To enable “AI+” to play such a significant role in the next five years, do you see any challenges?

Zhang Yuzhe: AI is a general-purpose technology with strong versatility and integration potential across industries, and this is definitely the trend for future development.

One challenge is the maturity of the technology itself. AI is also developing rapidly; currently, it may be transitioning from the incubation phase to high-speed growth. For example, generative AI based on Transformer architecture could see breakthroughs if new architectures or better technical implementations emerge, leading to new changes.

Another challenge comes from society. The negative impacts of AI on employment, income distribution, and public services need attention. AI replacing mid-skilled workers, including the employment pressure on young people, is already evident in many industries internationally. In terms of income distribution, it tends to be skill-oriented—those with higher skills accumulate more wealth, while those with less skill may see their incomes decline.