Naira weakens to N1,353.5/$ ahead of 304th MPC meeting

The naira weakened slightly in the official foreign exchange market on Monday, closing at N1,353.5/$ ahead of the 304th Monetary Policy Committee meeting of the Central Bank of Nigeria scheduled to conclude in Abuja on Tuesday.

Data published on the apex bank’s website showed the currency depreciated from N1,348/$ recorded last Friday.

The development comes as investors position themselves for the policy direction expected from the two-day meeting.

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Intraday trading data showed the naira traded at a high of N1,354.5/$ and a low of N1,343/$ before settling at a simple average rate of N1,349.24/$.

**What the data is saying **

Official market data indicate mild pressure on the naira in the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market, while the parallel market recorded marginal gains. External reserves also extended their upward trend.

• The naira closed at N1,353.5/$ on Monday, compared to N1,348/$ last Friday.
• Intraday trading ranged between N1,354.5/$ and N1,343/$, with a simple average of N1,349.24/$.
• In the parallel market, the currency strengthened to N1,358/$ from N1,361.5/$ quoted on Friday.
• Nigeria’s external reserves rose to $48.77 billion, according to Central Bank data.

The mixed performance across market segments reflects cautious trading as market participants await the outcome of the MPC deliberations.

Flashback

Ahead of the 303rd MPC meeting held in November 2025, the naira recorded gains across segments of the foreign exchange market. At the time, improved liquidity conditions supported a stronger performance.

• The currency closed at N1,452/$ on Monday, November 24, 2025.
• This represented an improvement from N1,458/$ recorded on Friday, November 21, 2025.
• The MPC at that meeting maintained a tight monetary stance.
• Key policy parameters were left unchanged to curb inflation and safeguard financial stability.

At the November meeting, the committee retained the Monetary Policy Rate at 27.00%, the Cash Reserve Ratio at 45.00% for Deposit Money Banks and 16.00% for Merchant Banks, maintained the 75% CRR on non-TSA public sector deposits, and held the Liquidity Ratio at 30.0%.

**What you should know **

Recently, BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, stated that the recent gains recorded by the Nigerian naira may be temporary, projecting that the currency could weaken modestly before the end of 2026.

The 304th MPC meeting is scheduled for February 23 and 24, 2026, with investors closely monitoring the policy outcome.

Analysts remain divided on whether the Central Bank will maintain its current stance or initiate cautious easing.

• Headline inflation has declined for eleven consecutive months to 15.1% as of January 2026.
• Some economists argue that moderating inflation alone may not warrant an immediate rate cut.
• Others believe strengthening external reserves and improving macroeconomic indicators could support a gradual policy shift.
• The MPC communiqué is expected to provide clarity on inflation management, liquidity conditions, and exchange rate stability.

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