Here is my thesis.

Broken down and put forward with key charts that I think show the greatest signal of it.
A lot of people don't understand why I think what I do... why I am targeting a continued cycle and new highs this year...
When surely a prolonged bear market seems obvious?
Overall, this chart highlights almost all the key differences we have seen within this cycle that have to be accounted for, and explained.
But most notably, in my view, it shows us exactly where we are in the cycle right now...
Even if it looks a little different to what most of us expected.
It looks a little complex so let's break it down(there is a TLDR at the end if you're lazy, but i recommend reading it all) :)
Firstly, at the top, we have BTC/TOTALES*100. This is basically Bitcoin Dominance but with stables removed.
The stables market has grown so much since 2021 so we need to remove to get an accurate picture. This chart is BTC divided by TOTAL with stables removed.
The first and most important thing we can see overall here, is that Dominance is still within the same cycle it started after the 2021 top.
As of yet, it has not broken down to any significant degree.
And that was the main difference this cycle that has confused most people.
Most people think the 4 year cycle is ruling things, and we just had a weak cycle for the first time ever.
But from where I see it, that is not true.
If we jump down to the ISM/PMI at the bottom, we can see that this is still within the same cycle, it just was in contraction for a much longer period of time than ever before.
Is it a coincidence that we had the weakest "cycle" ever during the only cycle in which Bitcoin made new highs, and dominance did not break down, whilst within business cycle contraction?
I think not.
What this means, imo, is that we are within a lengthened business cycle that has, in turn, created a longer Bitcoin cycle.
And the only reason Bitcoin managed to make new highs within this business cycle contraction, for the first time, is due to institutional and government adoption, that we have only ever had within this cycle.
This is why alts never truly got going(other than isolated runs), because it wasn't true expansion, due to business cycle contraction.
Alts need highly liquidity positive environment to thrive, which we have not had.
The overall backdrop was not there, even though Bitcoin made new highs.
Which is the main thing that has thrown everybody off into believing that we are entering a 4 year cycle style bear market here.
But you only have to look at Dominance to see that we are looking nothing like that kind of bear market. The cycle is actually still ongoing.
Now, lets look at Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Bitcoin is in a highly different scenario to last cycle. Ethereum is actually in a very similar position right now, but has had a very different cycle path so far.
Again, it is my belief that this is because of institutional and government adoption.
We have not made new sustained, true expansion highs, because we have been in overall contraction the whole time, until now.
And this is why BTC.D, even without stables, hasn't broken down yet.
The real chart that should be used for the cycle is BTC.D, not just Bitcoin.
So whats next?
Well, what we can see here is that Dominance rises just before it falls.
And its main period of collapse actually comes after Bitcoin breaks into price discovery, not once its finished its run.
We can see that when Bitcoin goes from orange dot to green dot, dominance rises.
Then, when it truly breaks out and doesn't look back, dominance collapses as the rest of the market runs.
And this all happens once, and only once, ISM is well and truly in expansion.
Then, finally, the actual cycle top comes after dominance breaks down, and ISM is heading towards contraction again.
TLDR
- Crypto isn't in a weak/failed 4 year cycle, it's in a lengthened cycle tied to an unusually prolonged business cycle contraction.
- Adjusted BTC Dominance (BTC/TOTALES*100, stables excluded) is still in the same bull phase range since 2021 top, no major breakdown yet (58-59% range currently).
- ISM Manufacturing PMI stayed in deep contraction far longer than any prior cycle = weakest looking crypto cycle ever.
- BTC still hit new ATHs during contraction for first time ever thanks to institutional + government adoption (ETFs, reserves talk, etc.)
- Alts never rallied because true liquidity/expansion never arrived and alts need strong ISM expansion (>50 and rising) to thrive.
- Dominance stays elevated until real price discovery begins; big drop (altseason trigger) typically happens after BTC breaks out sustainably and ISM enters solid expansion.
- Recent ISM rebound (52.6 in Jan 2026) signals we're likely entering/approaching that expansion phase = bull cycle continues, potential broader market rotation ahead in 2026.
This is why it is my view we have had a mid cycle top, driven by an unusual BTC run within overall contraction...
And now as we actually enter overall broader expansion, Bitcoin is going to continue higher within this lengthened ISM business cycle.
Just when everyone is only looking at the tress, thinking this is a standard 4 year cycle, when the forest is a far grander picture.
This is an absolute first for Bitcoin, and the cycle being so different has made it a challenging one to call...
It has misled me also.
But I think this thesis has pretty heavy weight and is backed within a very concise and detailed overall market position as i have put forward here.
Its not just about Bitcoin.
Hope that clears up where my head is at.