I’ve already shared this BTC analysis inside my premium group and with my copy-trade followers. Now I’m making it public so everyone can review it and evaluate it together.

So BTC only managed to hold above the potential demand zone of 75–80k for four days before continuing exactly in line with the Markdown phase. In times like this, what should we do? Today, this is Nolan’s perspective on BTC at the current stage. For those who don’t want to read the full analysis, here are 5 key takeaways:
1. BTC is in Phase E – Markdown, mid-to-late stage, but not finished yet.
2. The 70k area is not a Wyckoff bottom — it is only a temporary technical pause.
3. Volume indicates there is no clear supply absorption yet.
4. Accumulation only begins when structure appears, not simply because price has “dropped a lot.”
5. The current Wyckoff bias remains observational — no rush to call a bottom.

1. Overall Market State
As of 10/02, BTC is trading around 70,000–71,000 USD, significantly down from:

The 89k–93k breakdown zone (end of Phase D)
And far below the 126k UTAD peak

Quick observation on the Weekly timeframe:

The lower high – lower low structure remains clearly intact
Price is fully below the previous distribution zone
No new trading range has formed

=> From a Wyckoff perspective, there is no doubt: the market is in Phase E – Markdown, and more importantly, it has entered the latter half of Phase E, no longer in its early stage.

2. Wyckoff Structural Positioning
→ BTC is currently in Phase E (Markdown) — an expanding downtrend with no sign of completion or transition into Accumulation Phase A.

2.1 Why Phase E Is Still Ongoing
A “healthy” running Phase E typically shows the following characteristics — and BTC currently satisfies all of them:

Price continues making lower lows without explosive volume

This indicates demand is too weak to resist
The markdown is occurring in a controlled sell environment, not panic

Weak, short-lived rebounds that get rejected quickly

No rally has reclaimed the nearest supply zone
No base or range formation

No SOS or stopping action

No wide-spread bullish Weekly candle
No abnormal high volume at the lows

Under Wyckoff principles, this is classic evidence that the markdown is not yet complete.

2.2 The Structural Meaning of the Drop Toward ~70k
The decline from 89k → 70k carries significant structural importance:

It is the next markdown leg after Phase E was confirmed
It is not a spring
It is not a shakeout
It is an expansion of the markdown range to search for true demand

Key point:

Price is falling faster, but volume is not increasing proportionally → This suggests supply does not need to aggressively sell anymore because demand has already stepped aside.

This is a condition often seen before the market gradually approaches a stopping action zone — not at the stopping action itself.

3. Volume & Momentum Analysis (10/02)
Weekly Volume
Observations:
Overall volume continues trending downward
No selling climax has appeared
Volume MA remains sloping down

Implications:
Smart Money is not actively participating yet
No supply absorption
Markdown remains the dominant condition

If the market were forming a bottom, we would expect:
Clear seller exhaustion OR a volume spike accompanied by a strong lower-wick candle. Currently, neither is present.

On lower timeframes, BTC still reflects unchanged supply–demand dynamics: sellers dominate, and dip buyers fail to sustain upward momentum. It may also be influenced by weaker weekend liquidity. Weekly candle behavior and price action are showing similar characteristics. Nolan believes a bottom may form later this year (as suggested by the price behavior in the first image with the two yellow arrows), but for now, the approach should be observation — either positioning for distribution exits or entering very small, extremely slow DCA long-term BTC positions.

4. Why 70k Is Not a Wyckoff Bottom
This is methodologically important.
A Wyckoff bottom (beginning of Accumulation) requires:

Stopping action (initial SC or AR)
A defined trading range
A low-volume test of the lows
Signs of Strength (SOS) within the range

As of 10/02:
Price has merely “touched” 70k
No range
No test
No SOS

=> Any bottom-catching here goes against Wyckoff principles, even if emotionally it feels like “price has already dropped a lot.”

5. Key Wyckoff Price Zones (10/02)
5.1 Supply Zones (For Evaluating Reactions)
74,000 – 78,000 USD
Nearest technical rebound zone
If price rallies here on low volume → just a markdown reaction

84,000 – 86,000 USD
Strong supply (previous broken support)
Only a Weekly reclaim with rising volume would justify structural reassessment

5.2 Potential Demand / Stopping Zones
These are areas where important Wyckoff behavior could appear — but are not yet confirmed:

62,000 – 65,000 USD
Psychological level + historical liquidity
Potential first stopping action zone

55,000 – 58,000 USD
Higher probability zone for Accumulation Phase A
Only valid if accompanied by volume and structural development

6. Scenarios
Primary Scenario (Higher Probability)
- Phase E continues — markdown extends
- Price remains weak below 75k
- Slides toward deeper demand zones (65k → 58k)
- Only when we see:
Selling climax
Automatic reaction
Base formation
Then transition into Accumulation becomes valid.
Secondary Scenario (Lower Probability)
Early stopping action around 70k.
Mandatory conditions:
Strong Weekly lower wick
Explosive volume spike
Multi-week range formation