The costly dilemma of BTC price: Can it regain upward momentum after breaking support

Bitcoin (BTC) recently finally broke the three-day-long consolidation stalemate, but did so with a downward breakout that established the direction. This “bad news” type of clear direction presents new technical challenges: the successive loss of upper resistance and lower support levels at significant prices. As of February 22, BTC is quoted at $68.11K, with a 24-hour change of -0.10%, currently testing a critical support level.

The current decline has broken through the key support at 68348, indicating that the previously established bullish trend framework has been disrupted. After support is broken, the original support level of 68348 has turned into a new resistance level—this is the support-resistance flip commonly seen in technical analysis. BTC is now testing the support at 66787; if this level also cannot hold, the downside space will further open, with the next focus at 65292.

Support-Resistance Flip: The Technical Implication of 68348 Changing from Support to Resistance

Support-resistance flip is an important phenomenon in technical analysis. The original 68348, which served as a support benchmark during the bullish upward process, was broken downward, causing its nature to reverse—it now acts as a resistance level for upward rebounds. To re-establish an upward trend, BTC must break through and stabilize above 68348 again. The ideal recovery scenario is to form a consolidation and upward trend within the 66787-68348 range, thereby accumulating momentum for subsequent rebounds.

From a volume breakout perspective, 67219 is a short-term bullish entry point; breaking this level could be considered an opportunity to follow the rebound. Conversely, a volume-driven decline below 66519 would present a bearish opportunity, but strict stop-loss measures are necessary to control risk.

Multi-Timeframe Analysis: Hourly and 4-Hour Contradiction Analysis

Hourly Level shows more sensitive volatility characteristics. BTC needs to stay above 67291 to maintain the possibility of an hourly upward move, targeting the 68390-69346 range. If it cannot break through 67291, the hourly rebound will lack conviction.

4-Hour Level indicates stronger downward pressure. 66608 is a critical support at the 4-hour level; once broken, the risk of further decline increases, with the next target around 65512-64637. The differing performance across these timeframes suggests BTC is currently in a phase of directional hedging.

Pullback Risk Assessment: Fibonacci Targets and Evening Star Pattern Prediction

From the Fibonacci retracement on the hourly level, the current decline has already reached the 1:1 target level (around 67000), and even slightly exceeded it. More concerning is that the position circled in the white box may form an hourly Evening Star pattern. If confirmed, based on technical statistics, there is about an 80% probability of further decline, with the target near the Fibonacci 1.618 level around 64550.

To halt the decline, BTC must return above the Fibonacci 1:1 target level (67039) and stabilize. Otherwise, based on current technical patterns, reaching 64550 and continuing downward seems almost unavoidable. For investors holding positions, the current high price level warrants caution—both seizing rebound opportunities and guarding against further downside risks.

Overall, BTC is at a critical technical decision point: support levels have broken, opening the downside space, but certain levels (like 67219, 67291) still offer rebound opportunities. The multi-timeframe hedging performance suggests short-term volatility, requiring investors to respond flexibly based on key support and resistance levels.