Xi gains strategic edge ahead of Trump summit as U.S. tariff regime stumbles

Investing.com

Sun, February 22, 2026 at 7:12 PM GMT+9 2 min read

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Investing.com – The geopolitical chessboard has shifted in favor of Beijing just weeks before President Donald Trump is set to land in China for a high-stakes summit on March 31. Following a landmark U.S. Supreme Court ruling that stripped the White House of its broad emergency tariff powers, President Xi Jinping is heading to the negotiating table with newfound bargaining power.

The ruling effectively removed second-term levies that had previously escalated to as high as 145% on some goods. This leaves Beijing facing only the same 15% global baseline fee applied to U.S. allies, a rate that carries a 150-day expiration date. For Trump, the loss of this immediate “economic weapon” makes it far more difficult to extract massive purchase commitments for U.S. soybeans and Boeing aircraft.

Beijing’s new demands: chips and rare earths

With the “soybean card” now arguably back in China’s hand, Xi’s team is expected to push harder for concessions that were previously off-limits. Top of the list is expanded access to advanced semiconductors. This comes on the heels of the administration recently green-lighting the sale of NVIDIA’s (NVDA) H200 chips to Chinese firms, a significant softening of previous restrictions.

Beyond silicon, China may use its dominance in rare earth metals as a counter-lever. If the U.S. attempts to strike back with export controls on chip-design software or jet engines, Beijing could restrict the flow of vital materials needed for U.S. high-tech manufacturing. Analysts suggest that the Supreme Court ruling has essentially turned a one-sided demand session into a complex, two-way negotiation.

Front-loading and the Section 301 threat

While the current mood in Beijing is one of cautious optimism, market participants remain wary of the 150-day window. Under Section 122 and the forthcoming Section 301 investigations, the Trump administration is already working on “Plan B” to reconstitute higher tariffs. This has triggered a rush among Chinese exporters to “front-load” shipments to the U.S. to take advantage of the current, lower rates before new barriers are erected.

Despite the legal setback, Trump still possesses significant executive tools to pressure China, including tighter export controls and national security restrictions. However, the removal of the “reciprocal” duties has cleared a major diplomatic sticking point. As Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent prepares to meet with Chinese officials, the focus has shifted from avoiding a trade war to defining the terms of a new, potentially historic, investment framework.

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_Reporting by Simon Mugo _

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