#我在Gate广场过新年 Cryptocurrency Market Depth Analysis: Key Support Battles Under Macro Pressure

February 19, 2026 — Bitcoin price retreated to around $66,900, down approximately 0.45% from yesterday. The latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes released hawkish signals, hinting at possible rate hikes. The market fear and greed index dropped to 9 (extreme fear). Currently, BTC is testing the critical support level at $65,000. If this support is broken, the price could decline toward $60,000; if it holds, a technical rebound may be expected. Investors should strictly control their positions and monitor macro policy developments.

1. Market Overview
As of February 19, 2026, the overall cryptocurrency market remains under pressure. Bitcoin is priced at $66,933, down 0.45% in 24 hours, retreating from yesterday’s close of $67,637. This level approaches the lower boundary of recent trading ranges. Market sentiment indicators show investors are in extreme fear—the fear and greed index has fallen to 9, the lowest in recent months. Looking at a longer cycle, Bitcoin has been in a sustained correction since mid-January’s high of $97,000, with a total decline exceeding 30%. There was significant volatility in early February; on February 5, the price dipped to $60,074 before quickly rebounding, indicating strong buy support in the $60,000–$65,000 range. However, recent rebounds have weakened, and the price faces directional choices again. Ethereum has moved downward in tandem, remaining roughly flat over 24 hours. Altcoins have seen more pronounced declines: Solana down 3.42% to $81.77, Ripple down 2.78% to $1.43, reflecting a shift away from high-beta assets amid declining risk appetite.

2. Macro Drivers Analysis
Fed Policy Shift Expectations Rise
The core trigger for this adjustment is the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes released on February 18. The minutes show Fed officials remain cautious about inflation control, hinting that if economic data remains strong, rate hikes could be considered to curb inflation. This hawkish stance directly impacts risk asset pricing—historical data shows that during rate hike cycles, the dollar tends to strengthen, often leading to liquidity contraction in risk assets like cryptocurrencies. Reviewing the Fed’s monetary policy in December 2025, the removal of the standing repo facility (SRP) quota expansion increased market liquidity, boosting risk assets. The current policy shift indicates liquidity is tightening, contrasting sharply with the previous easing expectations. Investors need to reassess valuation logic for rate-sensitive assets. The narrative of safe-haven assets is challenged—gold prices have continued rising and hit record highs, while Bitcoin has declined against the trend, further weakening the “digital gold” safe-haven narrative. When traditional safe-haven assets and risk assets diverge, it signals the market is reclassifying cryptocurrencies as high-volatility risk assets rather than stores of value. This shift in perception may continue to suppress institutional allocation in the medium term.

3. Technical Deep Dive
Key Price Levels
Bitcoin is at a critical technical juncture. From a support perspective, $65,000 is a psychological level tested multiple times recently and was the starting point of the February rebound. If this level is broken, the next support zone shifts down to the $60,000 mark, with deeper corrections possibly reaching the $55,000 area. On the resistance side, the $70,000 level has formed a short-term pressure zone, requiring a volume breakout to confirm a valid rebound. Technical momentum indicators present a complex picture: the 14-day RSI is around 30, entering oversold territory, suggesting potential for a technical rebound. However, the MACD indicates ongoing bearish momentum, with divergence signals implying downward momentum has not yet fully exhausted. Volume analysis shows recent declines accompanied by increased trading volume, consistent with end-of-correction chip exchanges, but no clear bottoming volume signals have appeared yet.

On-Chain Data
Exchange net outflow data is noteworthy. Recently, large whales have been accumulating near $84,000, with daily net outflows reaching 12,000 BTC, indicating long-term holders are still buying on dips. Such on-chain behavior diverging from price trends is often seen as a mid-term bottom signal, but caution is warranted as macro deterioration could invalidate historical patterns.

4. Trading Strategy Recommendations
Spot Investors
For long-term allocation funds, current prices are in a zone suitable for phased building. A pyramid strategy is recommended: initiate tentative positions in the $66,000–$65,000 range (about 20% of total capital). If the price drops to $60,000, increase positions to 40%. In extreme cases, if it reaches $55,000, raise holdings to 60%. Keep 40% cash to prepare for deeper corrections or trend reversals for right-side additions. This strategy is based on macro cycle judgment. If the Fed clearly enters a rate hike cycle, reevaluate the weighting of cryptocurrencies in your portfolio and adjust target prices downward accordingly.

Futures Traders
Short-term futures trading should strictly follow the trend. The current trend is bearish; shorting on rebounds is preferable to contrarian bottom-fishing. Specifically, consider short positions when the price rebounds to resistance zones at $68,000–$69,000, with stops at $70,500, targeting $65,000 and $62,000. If the price breaks below support at $65,000, consider light shorting with stops at $66,500, targeting $60,000. Be especially cautious: when the fear index is at extreme lows, the market is prone to V-shaped reversals. Therefore, set trailing stops on shorts and protect profits promptly. Leverage should be limited to 3x or less to avoid liquidation from extreme volatility. Asset allocation should align with your previous framework: maintain 30–40% in gold as a risk anchor, keep crypto exposure below 20% of total assets, prioritizing main assets like BTC and ETH, and avoid highly volatile altcoins. Once macro conditions clarify and a clear bottom structure emerges, gradually increase crypto allocations.

5. Risks and Outlook
In the short term, the market faces three uncertainties: Fed policy trajectory, geopolitical risk evolution, and crypto regulation developments. Any deterioration could trigger another wave of sell-offs. Investors should maintain sufficient liquidity, avoid leverage, and strictly control individual trade risks. From a medium- to long-term perspective, the underlying value of blockchain technology remains intact. As infrastructure like Lightning Network and smart contracts continues to improve, and institutional adoption steadily increases, crypto assets still have structural growth potential. The current correction can be seen as a normal pullback within a bull cycle, not a trend end—provided macro conditions do not worsen systematically. Key indicators to watch include: changes in Fed officials’ rhetoric, USD index trends, the effectiveness of the $65,000 support, and ETF capital flows. Daily monitoring and flexible strategy adjustments are recommended.

Disclaimer: This analysis is based on publicly available information and is for reference only; it does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile; invest cautiously and make independent decisions based on your risk tolerance.